Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Las Vegas Sands Corp.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 5.9% to 30.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 18, DPO 8, DIO 2). At a 7.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (98% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $41.57 per share, suggesting LVS is overvalued by 20.7% at the current price of $52.39.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -477 | -498 | -519 | -674 | -876 | -898 |
| (−) Net Interest | 1,428 | 1,493 | 1,554 | 2,020 | 2,626 | 2,691 |
| (+) D&A | 1,125 | 1,364 | 1,634 | 1,826 | 2,086 | 2,138 |
| EBITDA | 2,076 | 2,359 | 2,669 | 3,172 | 3,835 | 3,931 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 2,037 | 2,130 | 2,216 | 2,880 | 3,744 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -85 | 23 | 22 | 167 | 217 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 125 | 206 | 432 | 124 | -127 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 15.0x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 59,008 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.84% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 120 | 184 | 358 | 95 | -90 | 40,450 |
| Enterprise Value | 41,117 | |||||
| Projection Period | 667 | 1.6% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 40,450 | 98.4% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 12,297 | |||||
| Equity Value | 28,820 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 693M | |||||
| Fair Price | $42 | -20.6% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 11.0x | 13.0x | 15.0x | 17.0x | 19.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $30 | $39 | $47 | $56 | $64 |
| 6.8% | $28 | $36 | $44 | $53 | $61 |
| 7.8% | $26 | $34 | $42 | $49 | $57 |
| 8.8% | $24 | $31 | $39 | $46 | $54 |
| 9.8% | $22 | $29 | $36 | $44 | $51 |
Current price: $52.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.