Intuitive Machines, Inc.

LUNR

IndustrialsAerospace & DefenseNASDAQ

$28.97

Market Cap: $4.62B

Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 07:49

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.91 – $38.50	$4.72	-83.7%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.02 – $71.36	$11.01	-62.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$3.57 – $12.96	$14.85	-48.8%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$11.01

Market Price

$28.97

Upside / Downside

-62.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -41.5% to a target of 10.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.1%, Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) has an intrinsic value of $11.01 per share (range: $1.02 – $71.36).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-41.5%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.1%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

17.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.3%

Tax Rate

0.3%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	942	348.6%	-31.2%	-294	-294	13	(150)	27	-459	-441
2027	1,111	17.9%	-20.8%	-231	-231	15	(165)	5	-386	-344
2028	1,410	26.8%	-10.4%	-147	-147	19	(194)	9	-331	-272
2029	1,615	14.6%	-0.1%	-1	-1	22	(204)	6	-190	-144
2030	1,835	13.6%	10.3%	189	188	24	(212)	6	-5	-4
2031	2,310	25.9%	10.3%	238	237	31	(241)	14	13	9
2032	2,801	21.3%	10.3%	289	288	37	(261)	14	50	30
2033	3,270	16.7%	10.3%	337	336	44	(269)	14	97	54
2034	3,667	12.2%	10.3%	378	377	49	(261)	12	153	79
2035	3,945	7.6%	10.3%	406	405	53	(237)	8	213	101

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-932

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)4,276

PV of Terminal Value2,035

Enterprise Value1,103

(–) Net Debt-210

Equity Value1,313

(÷) Shares Outstanding119

Fair Value per Share$11.01

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.1%	$-13	$5	$27	$49	$71
7.1%	$-13	$1	$17	$33	$49
8.1%	$-12	$-2	$11	$24	$36
9.1%	$-12	$-3	$7	$17	$27
10.1%	$-12	$-4	$4	$13	$21

Current price: $28.97. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 2.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$4.72

Market Price

$28.97

Upside / Downside

-83.7%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-41.5%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.1%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

17.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.3%

Tax Rate

0.3%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	942	348.6%	-31.2%	-294	-294	13	(140)	27	-448	-431
2027	1,111	17.9%	-20.8%	-231	-231	15	(140)	5	-362	-322
2028	1,410	26.8%	-10.4%	-147	-147	19	(147)	9	-284	-234
2029	1,615	14.6%	-0.1%	-1	-1	22	(133)	6	-118	-90
2030	1,835	13.6%	10.3%	189	188	24	(110)	6	96	68

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-1,008

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)1,935

PV of Terminal Value1,361

Enterprise Value353

(–) Net Debt-210

Equity Value563

(÷) Shares Outstanding119

Fair Value per Share$4.72

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.1%	$-9	$1	$13	$26	$39
7.1%	$-9	$-1	$8	$17	$27
8.1%	$-8	$-3	$5	$12	$20
9.1%	$-8	$-4	$3	$9	$15
10.1%	$-8	$-4	$1	$6	$11

Current price: $28.97. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 2.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$14.85

Market Price

$28.97

Upside / Downside

-48.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) has a fair value of $14.85 based on 9 comparable companies in the Aerospace & Defense industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Aerospace & Defense

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Intuitive Machines, Inc.LUNR	3,457	15.5x	3.4x
The GEO Group, Inc.GEO	2,888	1.7x	1.9x
First Advantage CorporationFA	2,782	1.6x	2.9x
Hub Group, Inc.HUBG	2,598	0.8x	0.8x
Triton International LimitedTRTN-PC	2,553	6.4x	6.8x
Atkore Inc.ATKR	2,507	1.0x	0.9x
V2X, Inc.VVX	2,361	0.7x	0.6x
Enerpac Tool Group Corp.EPAC	1,875	3.2x	3.3x
Voyager Technologies, Inc.VOYG	1,518	9.0x	6.2x
Enovix CorporationENVX	1,436	42.5x	33.2x
Industry Median		1.7x	2.9x
(*) Revenue		210	942
= Enterprise Value		363	2,759
(-) Net Debt		-210	-210
Equity Value		573	2,970
(/) Outstanding shares		119	119
Fair Price		$5	$25

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$14.85

-48.8%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$0.91 – $38.50

$4.72

-83.7%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$1.02 – $71.36

$11.01

-62.0%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$3.57 – $12.96

$14.85

-48.8%

DCF Analysis

Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$11.01

Market Price

$28.97

Upside / Downside

-62.0%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-41.5%

Target Operating Margin

10.3%

WACC

8.1%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

17.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.3%

Tax Rate

0.3%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	942	348.6%	-31.2%	-294	-294	13	(150)	27	-459	-441
2027	1,111	17.9%	-20.8%	-231	-231	15	(165)	5	-386	-344
2028	1,410	26.8%	-10.4%	-147	-147	19	(194)	9	-331	-272
2029	1,615	14.6%	-0.1%	-1	-1	22	(204)	6	-190	-144
2030	1,835	13.6%	10.3%	189	188	24	(212)	6	-5	-4
2031	2,310	25.9%	10.3%	238	237	31	(241)	14	13	9
2032	2,801	21.3%	10.3%	289	288	37	(261)	14	50	30
2033	3,270	16.7%	10.3%	337	336	44	(269)	14	97	54
2034	3,667	12.2%	10.3%	378	377	49	(261)	12	153	79
2035	3,945	7.6%	10.3%	406	405	53	(237)	8	213	101

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-932

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)4,276

PV of Terminal Value2,035

Enterprise Value1,103

(–) Net Debt-210

Equity Value1,313

(÷) Shares Outstanding119

Fair Value per Share$11.01

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.3%	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%
6.1%	$-13	$5	$27	$49	$71
7.1%	$-13	$1	$17	$33	$49
8.1%	$-12	$-2	$11	$24	$36
9.1%	$-12	$-3	$7	$17	$27
10.1%	$-12	$-4	$4	$13	$21

Current price: $28.97. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 2.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$14.85

Market Price

$28.97

Upside / Downside

-48.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Aerospace & Defense

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Intuitive Machines, Inc.LUNR	3,457	15.5x	3.4x
The GEO Group, Inc.GEO	2,888	1.7x	1.9x
First Advantage CorporationFA	2,782	1.6x	2.9x
Hub Group, Inc.HUBG	2,598	0.8x	0.8x
Triton International LimitedTRTN-PC	2,553	6.4x	6.8x
Atkore Inc.ATKR	2,507	1.0x	0.9x
V2X, Inc.VVX	2,361	0.7x	0.6x
Enerpac Tool Group Corp.EPAC	1,875	3.2x	3.3x
Voyager Technologies, Inc.VOYG	1,518	9.0x	6.2x
Enovix CorporationENVX	1,436	42.5x	33.2x
Industry Median		1.7x	2.9x
(*) Revenue		210	942
= Enterprise Value		363	2,759
(-) Net Debt		-210	-210
Equity Value		573	2,970
(/) Outstanding shares		119	119
Fair Price		$5	$25

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$14.85

-48.8%