Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The GEO Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 12.6% to 3.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 64, DPO 14, DIO 60). At a 8.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (76% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $78.78 per share, suggesting GEO is undervalued by 267.9% at the current price of $21.41.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 783 | 861 | 895 | 930 | 966 | 990 |
| (−) Net Interest | 211 | 233 | 242 | 251 | 261 | 267 |
| (+) D&A | 102 | 112 | 121 | 135 | 148 | 152 |
| EBITDA | 1,096 | 1,206 | 1,258 | 1,316 | 1,375 | 1,410 |
| (−) Tax | 252 | 277 | 288 | 299 | 311 | 319 |
| (−) CapEx | 122 | 135 | 140 | 145 | 151 | 155 |
| (−) ΔWC | 201 | 73 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | 521 | 721 | 798 | 838 | 879 | 901 |
| Terminal Value | 14,617 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.7% | |||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 2.5% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 500 | 636 | 648 | 627 | 605 | 9,648 |
| Enterprise Value | 12,663 | |||||
| Projection Period | 3,015 | 23.8% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 9,648 | 76.2% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,656 | |||||
| Equity Value | 11,007 | |||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 140 | |||||
| Fair Price | $78.78 | |||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $101 | $111 | $123 | $138 | $158 |
| 7.7% | $83 | $89 | $97 | $106 | $117 |
| 8.7% | $69 | $74 | $79 | $85 | $92 |
| 9.7% | $59 | $62 | $66 | $70 | $75 |
| 10.7% | $51 | $54 | $56 | $59 | $63 |
Current price: $21.41. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The GEO Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 12.6% to 3.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 64, DPO 14, DIO 60). At a 8.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (57% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $82.07 per share, suggesting GEO is undervalued by 283.3% at the current price of $21.41.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 783 | 861 | 895 | 930 | 966 | 1,003 | 1,039 | 1,075 | 1,110 | 1,145 | 1,174 |
| (−) Net Interest | 211 | 233 | 242 | 251 | 261 | 271 | 281 | 290 | 300 | 309 | 317 |
| (+) D&A | 102 | 112 | 121 | 135 | 148 | 139 | 145 | 151 | 157 | 162 | 166 |
| EBITDA | 1,096 | 1,206 | 1,258 | 1,316 | 1,375 | 1,412 | 1,465 | 1,516 | 1,567 | 1,617 | 1,657 |
| (−) Tax | 252 | 277 | 288 | 299 | 311 | 323 | 334 | 346 | 358 | 369 | 378 |
| (−) CapEx | 122 | 135 | 140 | 145 | 151 | 157 | 162 | 168 | 174 | 179 | 183 |
| (−) ΔWC | 201 | 73 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 33 | 34 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | 521 | 721 | 798 | 838 | 879 | 898 | 934 | 968 | 1,002 | 1,036 | 1,062 |
| Terminal Value | 17,236 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.7% | ||||||||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 2.5% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 500 | 636 | 648 | 627 | 605 | 569 | 544 | 519 | 495 | 471 | 7,510 |
| Enterprise Value | 13,123 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | 5,613 | 42.8% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 7,510 | 57.2% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,656 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 11,467 | ||||||||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 140 | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $82.07 | ||||||||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $109 | $118 | $128 | $141 | $158 |
| 7.7% | $89 | $94 | $101 | $108 | $117 |
| 8.7% | $75 | $78 | $82 | $87 | $92 |
| 9.7% | $64 | $66 | $69 | $72 | $76 |
| 10.7% | $55 | $57 | $59 | $61 | $64 |
Current price: $21.41. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The GEO Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 12.6% to 3.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 64, DPO 14, DIO 60). At a 8.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.4x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $85.57 per share, suggesting GEO is undervalued by 299.7% at the current price of $21.41.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 783 | 861 | 895 | 930 | 966 | 990 |
| (−) Net Interest | 211 | 233 | 242 | 251 | 261 | 267 |
| (+) D&A | 102 | 112 | 121 | 135 | 148 | 152 |
| EBITDA | 1,096 | 1,206 | 1,258 | 1,316 | 1,375 | 1,410 |
| (−) Tax | 252 | 277 | 288 | 299 | 311 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 122 | 135 | 140 | 145 | 151 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 201 | 73 | 32 | 33 | 34 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 521 | 721 | 798 | 838 | 879 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 11.4x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 16,054 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.66% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 500 | 636 | 648 | 627 | 605 | 10,597 |
| Enterprise Value | 13,613 | |||||
| Projection Period | 3,015 | 22.2% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 10,597 | 77.8% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,656 | |||||
| Equity Value | 11,956 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 140M | |||||
| Fair Price | $86 | +299.7% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 7.4x | 9.4x | 11.4x | 13.4x | 15.4x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $65 | $79 | $94 | $109 | $123 |
| 7.7% | $62 | $76 | $90 | $104 | $118 |
| 8.7% | $59 | $72 | $86 | $99 | $112 |
| 9.7% | $56 | $69 | $82 | $94 | $107 |
| 10.7% | $54 | $66 | $78 | $90 | $102 |
Current price: $21.41. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The GEO Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 12.6% to 3.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 64, DPO 14, DIO 60). At a 8.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (59% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.4x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $87.19 per share, suggesting GEO is undervalued by 307.2% at the current price of $21.41.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 783 | 861 | 895 | 930 | 966 | 1,003 | 1,039 | 1,075 | 1,110 | 1,145 | 1,174 |
| (−) Net Interest | 211 | 233 | 242 | 251 | 261 | 271 | 281 | 290 | 300 | 309 | 317 |
| (+) D&A | 102 | 112 | 121 | 135 | 148 | 139 | 145 | 151 | 157 | 162 | 166 |
| EBITDA | 1,096 | 1,206 | 1,258 | 1,316 | 1,375 | 1,412 | 1,465 | 1,516 | 1,567 | 1,617 | 1,657 |
| (−) Tax | 252 | 277 | 288 | 299 | 311 | 323 | 334 | 346 | 358 | 369 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 122 | 135 | 140 | 145 | 151 | 157 | 162 | 168 | 174 | 179 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 201 | 73 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 33 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 521 | 721 | 798 | 838 | 879 | 898 | 934 | 968 | 1,002 | 1,036 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 11.4x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 18,877 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.66% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 500 | 636 | 648 | 627 | 605 | 569 | 544 | 519 | 495 | 471 | 8,225 |
| Enterprise Value | 13,838 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | 5,613 | 40.6% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 8,225 | 59.4% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,656 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 12,182 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 140M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $87 | +307.2% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 7.4x | 9.4x | 11.4x | 13.4x | 15.4x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $78 | $91 | $103 | $115 | $128 |
| 7.7% | $72 | $83 | $95 | $106 | $117 |
| 8.7% | $67 | $77 | $87 | $98 | $108 |
| 9.7% | $61 | $71 | $80 | $90 | $99 |
| 10.7% | $57 | $65 | $74 | $83 | $91 |
Current price: $21.41. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) has a fair value of $22.54 based on 7 comparable companies in the Security & Protection Services industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The GEO Group, Inc.GEO | 2,991 | 11.8x | 84.3x |
| Allegion plc | 12,076 | 18.8x | 17.1x |
| MSA Safety Incorporated | 6,423 | 23.4x | 21.5x |
| The Brink's Company | 4,266 | 22.1x | 11.3x |
| Brady Corporation | 3,789 | 20.5x | 19.4x |
| Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | 1,435 | 33.8x | 30.0x |
| Mistras Group, Inc. | 490 | 29.3x | — |
| CompX International Inc. | 280 | 14.4x | 64.1x |
| Industry Median | 22.1x | 20.5x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 254 | 36 | |
| Equity Value | 5,609 | 690 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 140 | 140 | |
| Fair Price | $40 | $5 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) has a fair value of $44.10 based on 8 comparable companies in the Security & Protection Services industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The GEO Group, Inc.GEO | 2,991 | 7.4x | 8.0x |
| Allegion plc | 12,076 | 14.2x | 14.1x |
| MSA Safety Incorporated | 6,423 | 14.5x | 14.9x |
| The Brink's Company | 4,266 | 7.8x | 7.3x |
| Brady Corporation | 3,789 | 13.4x | 15.0x |
| Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | 1,435 | 28.0x | 26.9x |
| Mistras Group, Inc. | 490 | 8.2x | 8.2x |
| CompX International Inc. | 280 | 8.6x | 20.5x |
| NL Industries, Inc. | 276 | 9.4x | 9.7x |
| Industry Median | 11.4x | 14.5x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 631 | 581 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 7,188 | 8,448 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,656 | 1,656 | |
| Equity Value | 5,532 | 6,792 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 140 | 140 | |
| Fair Price | $40 | $49 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) has a fair value of $25.86 based on 9 comparable companies in the Security & Protection Services industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| The GEO Group, Inc.GEO | 2,991 | 1.8x | 1.9x |
| Allegion plc | 12,076 | 3.4x | 3.4x |
| MSA Safety Incorporated | 6,423 | 3.7x | 3.8x |
| Resideo Technologies, Inc. | 5,272 | 1.0x | 1.2x |
| The Brink's Company | 4,266 | 1.3x | 1.2x |
| Brady Corporation | 3,789 | 2.5x | 2.8x |
| Napco Security Technologies, Inc. | 1,435 | 7.5x | 7.2x |
| Mistras Group, Inc. | 490 | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| CompX International Inc. | 280 | 1.4x | 3.4x |
| NL Industries, Inc. | 276 | 1.0x | 1.1x |
| Industry Median | 1.4x | 2.8x | |
| (*) Revenue | 2,632 | 2,424 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 3,764 | 6,776 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 1,656 | 1,656 | |
| Equity Value | 2,107 | 5,119 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 140 | 140 | |
| Fair Price | $15 | $37 | |
Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 25.0%, the company has a fair value of $28.60 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.14. The current PEG ratio is 0.47.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateHistorical | 33.1% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $1.14 |
| Fair Value | $28.60 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $1.82 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $1.14 | -37.1% | 3 |
1Y Forward EPS CAGR: -37.1%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $77.4M | $0.58 | — |
| FY2022 | $171.8M | $1.17 | +101.7% |
| FY2023 | $107.3M | $0.72 | -38.5% |
| FY2024 | $32.0M | $0.22 | -69.4% |
| FY2025 | $254.4M | $1.82 | +727.3% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 33.1%
Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 8.7% and normalized earnings of $618.7M, the company has a fair value of $39.27 per share. The EPV range is $31.72 – $49.97 based on WACC sensitivity (7.2% – 10.2%).
| Low | Selected | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | 619 | 619 | 619 |
| (/) WACC | 10.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% |
| Enterprise Value | 6,088 | 7,143 | 8,638 |
| (-) Net debt | 1,656 | 1,656 | 1,656 |
| Equity Value | 4,432 | 5,486 | 6,982 |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 140 | 140 | 140 |
| Fair Price | $31.72 | $39.27 | $49.97 |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.