Lightspeed Commerce Inc.

LSPD

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNYSE

$9.86

Market Cap: $1.35B

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD) Valuation Summary

Updated May 10, 2026 13:19

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$1.57 – $33.71	$2.25	-77.2%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$14.98 – $26.38	$17.52	+77.7%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.25

Market Price

$9.86

Upside / Downside

-77.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -64.6% to a target of 10.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.9%, Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD) has an intrinsic value of $2.25 per share (range: $1.57 – $33.71).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-64.6%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

21.8%

D&A/Revenue

14.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,219	13.2%	-49.7%	-605	-605	177	(46)	2	-476	-456
2027	1,319	8.2%	-34.7%	-457	-457	192	(76)	4	-346	-304
2028	1,478	12.1%	-19.7%	-291	-291	215	(115)	7	-198	-160
2029	1,607	8.7%	-4.7%	-76	-76	234	(157)	6	-5	-4
2030	2,089	30.0%	10.2%	214	169	304	(246)	21	206	140
2031	2,715	30.0%	10.2%	278	220	395	(374)	27	213	133
2032	3,530	30.0%	10.2%	361	286	513	(558)	35	206	118
2033	4,438	25.7%	10.2%	454	359	646	(790)	39	175	92
2034	5,243	18.1%	10.2%	537	424	763	(1,039)	35	113	55
2035	5,798	10.6%	10.2%	594	469	843	(1,265)	24	23	10

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-375

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)405

PV of Terminal Value180

Enterprise Value-195

(–) Net Debt-541

Equity Value346

(÷) Shares Outstanding154

Fair Value per Share$2.25

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.9%	$-4	$-1	$3	$19	$34
7.9%	$-4	$-1	$3	$14	$26
8.9%	$-4	$-1	$2	$12	$21
9.9%	$-4	$-1	$2	$10	$17
10.9%	$-3	$-1	$2	$8	$15

Current price: $9.86. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 4.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$17.52

Market Price

$9.86

Upside / Downside

+77.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD) has a fair value of $17.52 based on 7 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Lightspeed Commerce Inc.LSPD	1,515	0.9x	0.9x
DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc.DV	1,697	2.1x	1.9x
Porch Group, Inc.PRCH	1,234	3.3x	3.5x
Amplitude, Inc.AMPL	852	2.3x	1.9x
Rezolve AI PLCRZLV	639	14.6x	—
PagerDuty, Inc.PD	630	1.6x	1.7x
PAR Technology CorporationPAR	594	2.0x	2.4x
Alight, Inc.ALIT	490	1.0x	0.9x
Industry Median		2.1x	1.9x
(*) Revenue		1,077	1,075
= Enterprise Value		2,213	2,089
(-) Net Debt		-541	-541
Equity Value		2,755	2,630
(/) Outstanding shares		154	154
Fair Price		$18	$17

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$17.52

+77.7%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$1.57 – $33.71

$2.25

-77.2%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$14.98 – $26.38

$17.52

+77.7%

DCF Analysis

Lightspeed Commerce Inc. (LSPD) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$2.25

Market Price

$9.86

Upside / Downside

-77.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-64.6%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.9%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

1.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

21.8%

D&A/Revenue

14.6%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,219	13.2%	-49.7%	-605	-605	177	(46)	2	-476	-456
2027	1,319	8.2%	-34.7%	-457	-457	192	(76)	4	-346	-304
2028	1,478	12.1%	-19.7%	-291	-291	215	(115)	7	-198	-160
2029	1,607	8.7%	-4.7%	-76	-76	234	(157)	6	-5	-4
2030	2,089	30.0%	10.2%	214	169	304	(246)	21	206	140
2031	2,715	30.0%	10.2%	278	220	395	(374)	27	213	133
2032	3,530	30.0%	10.2%	361	286	513	(558)	35	206	118
2033	4,438	25.7%	10.2%	454	359	646	(790)	39	175	92
2034	5,243	18.1%	10.2%	537	424	763	(1,039)	35	113	55
2035	5,798	10.6%	10.2%	594	469	843	(1,265)	24	23	10

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-375

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)405

PV of Terminal Value180

Enterprise Value-195

(–) Net Debt-541

Equity Value346

(÷) Shares Outstanding154

Fair Value per Share$2.25

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.9%	$-4	$-1	$3	$19	$34
7.9%	$-4	$-1	$3	$14	$26
8.9%	$-4	$-1	$2	$12	$21
9.9%	$-4	$-1	$2	$10	$17
10.9%	$-3	$-1	$2	$8	$15

Current price: $9.86. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 4.3% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$17.52

Market Price

$9.86

Upside / Downside

+77.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Lightspeed Commerce Inc.LSPD	1,515	0.9x	0.9x
DoubleVerify Holdings, Inc.DV	1,697	2.1x	1.9x
Porch Group, Inc.PRCH	1,234	3.3x	3.5x
Amplitude, Inc.AMPL	852	2.3x	1.9x
Rezolve AI PLCRZLV	639	14.6x	—
PagerDuty, Inc.PD	630	1.6x	1.7x
PAR Technology CorporationPAR	594	2.0x	2.4x
Alight, Inc.ALIT	490	1.0x	0.9x
Industry Median		2.1x	1.9x
(*) Revenue		1,077	1,075
= Enterprise Value		2,213	2,089
(-) Net Debt		-541	-541
Equity Value		2,755	2,630
(/) Outstanding shares		154	154
Fair Price		$18	$17

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$17.52

+77.7%