Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 22.2% plus 0.6% dividend yield, Eli Lilly and Company has a fair value of $764.77 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $34.43. The current PEG ratio is 1.18.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG is most informative for high-growth companies — the PEG sweet spot.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 21.6% |
| Dividend Yield | +0.6% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 22.2% |
| Fair P/E | 22.2x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $34.43 |
| Fair Value | $764.77 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $22.95 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $34.43 | +50.0% | 19 |
| FY2027E | $42.03 | +22.1% | 21 |
| FY2028E | $49.21 | +17.1% | 22 |
| FY2029E | $55.40 | +12.6% | 15 |
| FY2030E | $60.97 | +10.1% | 11 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 21.6%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $5.6B | $5.85 | — |
| FY2022 | $6.2B | $6.57 | +12.3% |
| FY2023 | $5.2B | $5.80 | -11.7% |
| FY2024 | $10.6B | $11.71 | +101.9% |
| FY2025 | $20.6B | $22.95 | +96.0% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 40.7%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.