Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0%, Lumentum Holdings Inc. has a fair value of $192.26 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $7.69. The current PEG ratio is 0.68.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 132.8% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $7.69 |
| Fair Value | $192.26 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $0.37 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $7.69 | +1978.5% | 16 |
| FY2027E | $15.02 | +95.3% | 16 |
| FY2028E | $18.54 | +23.4% | 12 |
| FY2029E | $10.86 | -41.4% | 8 |
4Y Forward EPS CAGR: 132.8%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.
| FY2021 | $198.9M | $2.68 | — |
| FY2022 | $198.9M | $2.68 | +0.0% |
| FY2023 | $-131.6M | $-1.93 | -172.0% |
| FY2024 | $-546.5M | $-8.12 | — |
| FY2025 | $25.9M | $0.37 | — |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -39.0%