Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Linde plc's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.6% to 1.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 56, DPO 51, DIO 34). At a 8.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (90% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 24.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $569.10 per share, suggesting LIN is fairly valued by 14.1% at the current price of $498.98.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 8,186 | 8,584 | 9,093 | 9,970 | 10,160 | 10,414 |
| (−) Net Interest | 351 | 368 | 390 | 427 | 436 | 446 |
| (+) D&A | 3,961 | 4,199 | 4,462 | 4,656 | 4,799 | 4,919 |
| EBITDA | 12,498 | 13,152 | 13,945 | 15,053 | 15,394 | 15,779 |
| (−) Tax | 1,903 | 1,996 | 2,114 | 2,318 | 2,362 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 4,279 | 4,487 | 4,753 | 5,212 | 5,311 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -110 | 212 | 272 | 468 | 101 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 6,425 | 6,456 | 6,806 | 7,055 | 7,620 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 24.2x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 382,333 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.99% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 6,183 | 5,753 | 5,617 | 5,391 | 5,392 | 260,338 |
| Enterprise Value | 288,673 | |||||
| Projection Period | 28,336 | 9.8% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 260,338 | 90.2% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 21,933 | |||||
| Equity Value | 266,740 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 469M | |||||
| Fair Price | $569 | +14.1% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 20.2x | 22.2x | 24.2x | 26.2x | 28.2x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $526 | $576 | $626 | $677 | $727 |
| 7.0% | $501 | $549 | $597 | $645 | $693 |
| 8.0% | $477 | $523 | $569 | $615 | $661 |
| 9.0% | $455 | $499 | $543 | $587 | $630 |
| 10.0% | $434 | $476 | $518 | $560 | $601 |
Current price: $498.98. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.