Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Kimberly-Clark Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.3% to 14.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 39, DPO 104, DIO 55). At a 6.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.9x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $152.61 per share, suggesting KMB is undervalued by 54.4% at the current price of $98.82.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,101 | 2,075 | 2,207 | 2,858 | 3,274 | 3,356 |
| (−) Net Interest | 243 | 240 | 256 | 331 | 379 | 389 |
| (+) D&A | 902 | 864 | 850 | 869 | 948 | 971 |
| EBITDA | 3,246 | 3,179 | 3,313 | 4,058 | 4,601 | 4,716 |
| (−) Tax | 432 | 426 | 454 | 587 | 673 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 818 | 808 | 860 | 1,113 | 1,276 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 327 | -4 | 19 | 95 | 61 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,668 | 1,948 | 1,981 | 2,262 | 2,592 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 13.9x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 65,785 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,618 | 1,777 | 1,699 | 1,826 | 1,967 | 48,431 |
| Enterprise Value | 57,319 | |||||
| Projection Period | 8,888 | 15.5% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 48,431 | 84.5% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 6,480 | |||||
| Equity Value | 50,839 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 333M | |||||
| Fair Price | $153 | +54.4% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 9.9x | 11.9x | 13.9x | 15.9x | 17.9x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.3% | $123 | $146 | $168 | $191 | $214 |
| 5.3% | $117 | $138 | $160 | $182 | $204 |
| 6.3% | $111 | $132 | $153 | $173 | $194 |
| 7.3% | $106 | $125 | $145 | $165 | $185 |
| 8.3% | $100 | $119 | $138 | $157 | $176 |
Current price: $98.82. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.