Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Kimco Realty Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 2.5% to 10.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 77, DPO 160, DIO 60). At a 7.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (81% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $31.78 per share, suggesting KIM is undervalued by 42.0% at the current price of $22.39.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 954 | 989 | 1,050 | 1,090 | 1,200 | 1,230 |
| (−) Net Interest | 335 | 347 | 369 | 383 | 421 | 432 |
| (+) D&A | 187 | 256 | 327 | 350 | 364 | 373 |
| EBITDA | 1,476 | 1,593 | 1,746 | 1,823 | 1,986 | 2,035 |
| (−) Tax | 92 | 95 | 101 | 105 | 115 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 344 | 357 | 379 | 393 | 433 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -493 | 10 | 17 | 11 | 30 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,534 | 1,131 | 1,250 | 1,314 | 1,408 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 17.1x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 34,722 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.43% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,480 | 1,016 | 1,045 | 1,023 | 1,020 | 24,268 |
| Enterprise Value | 29,852 | |||||
| Projection Period | 5,584 | 18.7% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 24,268 | 81.3% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 8,428 | |||||
| Equity Value | 21,424 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 674M | |||||
| Fair Price | $32 | +42.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 13.1x | 15.1x | 17.1x | 19.1x | 21.1x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.4% | $26 | $31 | $36 | $40 | $45 |
| 6.4% | $25 | $29 | $34 | $38 | $43 |
| 7.4% | $23 | $28 | $32 | $36 | $40 |
| 8.4% | $22 | $26 | $30 | $34 | $38 |
| 9.4% | $21 | $24 | $28 | $32 | $36 |
Current price: $22.39. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.