Kingsway Financial Services Inc.

KFS

Consumer CyclicalAuto - DealershipsNYSE

$11.19

Market Cap: $323.91M

Kingsway Financial Services Inc. (KFS) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:27

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	—	N/A	—
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.53 – $22.68	$0.53	-95.1%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$0.97 – $11.75	$6.66	-38.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Kingsway Financial Services Inc. (KFS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.53

Market Price

$11.19

Upside / Downside

-95.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -4.5% to a target of 7.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.2%, Kingsway Financial Services Inc. (KFS) has an intrinsic value of $0.53 per share (range: $0.53 – $22.68).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.5%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

5.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

9.2%

D&A/Revenue

6.1%

Tax Rate

2.9%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	156	13.8%	-2.0%	-3	-3	10	(9)	43	-45	-43
2027	177	13.8%	0.4%	1	1	11	(11)	8	-7	-6
2028	202	13.8%	2.8%	6	6	12	(13)	9	-4	-3
2029	230	13.8%	5.3%	12	12	14	(16)	10	0	0
2030	261	13.8%	7.7%	20	20	16	(19)	12	5	4
2031	293	12.0%	7.7%	23	22	18	(22)	11	6	4
2032	323	10.2%	7.7%	25	24	20	(26)	11	7	4
2033	350	8.4%	7.7%	27	26	21	(29)	10	8	5
2034	373	6.6%	7.7%	29	28	23	(33)	8	10	5
2035	391	4.8%	7.7%	30	29	24	(36)	7	11	5

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-26

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)216

PV of Terminal Value103

Enterprise Value76

(–) Net Debt62

Equity Value15

(÷) Shares Outstanding28

Fair Value per Share$0.53

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
6.2%	$-6	$-5	$4	$13	$23
7.2%	$-6	$-5	$2	$9	$16
8.2%	$-6	$-5	$1	$6	$11
9.2%	$-6	$-5	$-0	$4	$8
10.2%	$-6	$-5	$-1	$3	$6

Current price: $11.19. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 36.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$6.66

Market Price

$11.19

Upside / Downside

-40.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Kingsway Financial Services Inc. (KFS) has a fair value of $6.66 based on 9 comparable companies in the Auto - Dealerships industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Auto - Dealerships

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Kingsway Financial Services Inc.KFS	312	2.7x	1.0x
Betterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V.BWMX	652	1.3x	—
Arko Corp.ARKO	625	0.6x	0.6x
Miller Industries, Inc.MLR	524	0.6x	0.4x
Johnson Outdoors Inc.JOUT	499	0.6x	0.5x
Monro, Inc.MNRO	466	0.8x	0.8x
Hyliion Holdings Corp.HYLN	302	81.6x	75.7x
Ranpak Holdings Corp.PACK	300	1.7x	2.0x
Innoviz Technologies Ltd.INVZ	142	3.6x	3.4x
Robo.ai Inc.AIIO	14	2.8x	—
Industry Median		1.3x	0.8x
(*) Revenue		137	392
= Enterprise Value		174	321
(-) Net Debt		62	62
Equity Value		112	259
(/) Outstanding shares		28	28
Fair Price		$4	$9

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$6.66

-40.5%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

—

N/A

—

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.53 – $22.68

$0.53

-95.1%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$0.97 – $11.75

$6.66

-38.0%

DCF Analysis

Kingsway Financial Services Inc. (KFS) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.53

Market Price

$11.19

Upside / Downside

-95.3%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-4.5%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

5.2%

Target CapEx/Rev

9.2%

D&A/Revenue

6.1%

Tax Rate

2.9%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	156	13.8%	-2.0%	-3	-3	10	(9)	43	-45	-43
2027	177	13.8%	0.4%	1	1	11	(11)	8	-7	-6
2028	202	13.8%	2.8%	6	6	12	(13)	9	-4	-3
2029	230	13.8%	5.3%	12	12	14	(16)	10	0	0
2030	261	13.8%	7.7%	20	20	16	(19)	12	5	4
2031	293	12.0%	7.7%	23	22	18	(22)	11	6	4
2032	323	10.2%	7.7%	25	24	20	(26)	11	7	4
2033	350	8.4%	7.7%	27	26	21	(29)	10	8	5
2034	373	6.6%	7.7%	29	28	23	(33)	8	10	5
2035	391	4.8%	7.7%	30	29	24	(36)	7	11	5

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-26

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)216

PV of Terminal Value103

Enterprise Value76

(–) Net Debt62

Equity Value15

(÷) Shares Outstanding28

Fair Value per Share$0.53

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
6.2%	$-6	$-5	$4	$13	$23
7.2%	$-6	$-5	$2	$9	$16
8.2%	$-6	$-5	$1	$6	$11
9.2%	$-6	$-5	$-0	$4	$8
10.2%	$-6	$-5	$-1	$3	$6

Current price: $11.19. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 36.4% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$6.66

Market Price

$11.19

Upside / Downside

-40.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Auto - Dealerships

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Kingsway Financial Services Inc.KFS	312	2.7x	1.0x
Betterware de México, S.A.P.I. de C.V.BWMX	652	1.3x	—
Arko Corp.ARKO	625	0.6x	0.6x
Miller Industries, Inc.MLR	524	0.6x	0.4x
Johnson Outdoors Inc.JOUT	499	0.6x	0.5x
Monro, Inc.MNRO	466	0.8x	0.8x
Hyliion Holdings Corp.HYLN	302	81.6x	75.7x
Ranpak Holdings Corp.PACK	300	1.7x	2.0x
Innoviz Technologies Ltd.INVZ	142	3.6x	3.4x
Robo.ai Inc.AIIO	14	2.8x	—
Industry Median		1.3x	0.8x
(*) Revenue		137	392
= Enterprise Value		174	321
(-) Net Debt		62	62
Equity Value		112	259
(/) Outstanding shares		28	28
Fair Price		$4	$9

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$6.66

-40.5%