Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 21.6% plus 4.9% dividend yield, KeyCorp has a fair value of $38.93 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.81. The current PEG ratio is 0.51.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG is most informative for high-growth companies — the PEG sweet spot.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 16.7% |
| Dividend Yield | +4.9% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 21.6% |
| Fair P/E | 21.6x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $1.81 |
| Fair Value | $38.93 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $1.52 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $1.81 | +18.8% | 8 |
| FY2027E | $2.14 | +18.3% | 8 |
| FY2028E | $2.42 | +13.1% | 4 |
3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 16.7%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $2.6B | $2.63 | — |
| FY2022 | $1.9B | $1.93 | -26.6% |
| FY2023 | $967.0M | $0.88 | -54.4% |
| FY2024 | $-161.0M | $-0.32 | -136.4% |
| FY2025 | $1.8B | $1.52 | — |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -12.8%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.