Jumia Technologies AG

JMIA

Consumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailNYSE

$7.98

Market Cap: $494.17M

Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 23, 2026 22:31

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$1.56 – $24.13	$6.48	-9.1%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$0.83 – $21.32	$5.14	-28.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$3.37 – $6.94	$5.49	-23.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.14

Market Price

$7.98

Upside / Downside

-35.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -33.9% to a target of 7.7% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.2%, Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) has an intrinsic value of $5.14 per share (range: $0.83 – $21.32).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-33.9%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.8%

D&A/Revenue

5.2%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	238	26.2%	-25.6%	-61	-61	12	(9)	8	-65	-63
2027	281	18.1%	-17.2%	-49	-49	15	(11)	-3	-42	-37
2028	301	7.0%	-8.9%	-27	-27	16	(14)	-2	-23	-19
2029	471	56.3%	-0.6%	-3	-3	24	(23)	-13	11	9
2030	601	27.7%	7.7%	46	37	31	(33)	-10	45	32
2031	619	3.0%	7.7%	48	38	32	(37)	-1	35	22
2032	638	3.0%	7.7%	49	39	33	(41)	-1	33	20
2033	657	3.0%	7.7%	51	40	34	(45)	-2	31	17
2034	677	3.0%	7.7%	52	41	35	(49)	-2	28	15
2035	697	3.0%	7.7%	54	42	36	(54)	-2	26	12

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)7

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)514

PV of Terminal Value243

Enterprise Value249

(–) Net Debt-65

Equity Value314

(÷) Shares Outstanding61

Fair Value per Share$5.14

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
6.2%	$-1	$3	$9	$15	$21
7.2%	$-1	$2	$7	$11	$16
8.2%	$-1	$1	$5	$9	$12
9.2%	$-1	$1	$4	$7	$10
10.2%	$-1	$1	$3	$6	$8

Current price: $7.98. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -7.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$6.48

Market Price

$7.98

Upside / Downside

-18.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-33.9%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.8%

D&A/Revenue

5.2%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	238	26.2%	-25.6%	-61	-61	12	(10)	8	-66	-64
2027	281	18.1%	-17.2%	-49	-49	15	(14)	-3	-45	-40
2028	301	7.0%	-8.9%	-27	-27	16	(18)	-2	-28	-23
2029	471	56.3%	-0.6%	-3	-3	24	(32)	-13	3	2
2030	601	27.7%	7.7%	46	37	31	(47)	-10	31	22

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-102

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)619

PV of Terminal Value434

Enterprise Value332

(–) Net Debt-65

Equity Value397

(÷) Shares Outstanding61

Fair Value per Share$6.48

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
6.2%	$-0	$6	$12	$18	$24
7.2%	$-1	$4	$9	$13	$18
8.2%	$-1	$3	$6	$10	$14
9.2%	$-1	$2	$5	$8	$11
10.2%	$-1	$2	$4	$7	$9

Current price: $7.98. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -7.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$5.46

Market Price

$7.98

Upside / Downside

-31.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) has a fair value of $5.46 based on 6 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Specialty Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Jumia Technologies AGJMIA	489	2.2x	1.8x
Olaplex Holdings, Inc.OLPX	1,364	3.3x	3.4x
Liquidity Services, Inc.LQDT	1,069	1.9x	2.8x
MarineMax, Inc.HZO	652	0.7x	0.7x
Cars.com Inc.CARS	645	1.5x	1.4x
Stitch Fix, Inc.SFIX	517	0.4x	0.4x
Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.BBW	489	1.1x	1.1x
Industry Median		1.3x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		189	236
= Enterprise Value		243	296
(-) Net Debt		-65	-65
Equity Value		308	361
(/) Outstanding shares		61	61
Fair Price		$5	$6

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$5.46

-31.5%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$1.56 – $24.13

$6.48

-9.1%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$0.83 – $21.32

$5.14

-28.0%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$3.37 – $6.94

$5.49

-23.0%

DCF Analysis

Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$5.14

Market Price

$7.98

Upside / Downside

-35.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-33.9%

Target Operating Margin

7.7%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.1%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.8%

D&A/Revenue

5.2%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	238	26.2%	-25.6%	-61	-61	12	(9)	8	-65	-63
2027	281	18.1%	-17.2%	-49	-49	15	(11)	-3	-42	-37
2028	301	7.0%	-8.9%	-27	-27	16	(14)	-2	-23	-19
2029	471	56.3%	-0.6%	-3	-3	24	(23)	-13	11	9
2030	601	27.7%	7.7%	46	37	31	(33)	-10	45	32
2031	619	3.0%	7.7%	48	38	32	(37)	-1	35	22
2032	638	3.0%	7.7%	49	39	33	(41)	-1	33	20
2033	657	3.0%	7.7%	51	40	34	(45)	-2	31	17
2034	677	3.0%	7.7%	52	41	35	(49)	-2	28	15
2035	697	3.0%	7.7%	54	42	36	(54)	-2	26	12

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)7

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)514

PV of Terminal Value243

Enterprise Value249

(–) Net Debt-65

Equity Value314

(÷) Shares Outstanding61

Fair Value per Share$5.14

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	1.7%	4.7%	7.7%	10.7%	13.7%
6.2%	$-1	$3	$9	$15	$21
7.2%	$-1	$2	$7	$11	$16
8.2%	$-1	$1	$5	$9	$12
9.2%	$-1	$1	$4	$7	$10
10.2%	$-1	$1	$3	$6	$8

Current price: $7.98. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -7.9% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$5.46

Market Price

$7.98

Upside / Downside

-31.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Jumia Technologies AG (JMIA) has a fair value of $5.46 based on 6 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Specialty Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Jumia Technologies AGJMIA	489	2.2x	1.8x
Olaplex Holdings, Inc.OLPX	1,364	3.3x	3.4x
Liquidity Services, Inc.LQDT	1,069	1.9x	2.8x
MarineMax, Inc.HZO	652	0.7x	0.7x
Cars.com Inc.CARS	645	1.5x	1.4x
Stitch Fix, Inc.SFIX	517	0.4x	0.4x
Build-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.BBW	489	1.1x	1.1x
Industry Median		1.3x	1.3x
(*) Revenue		189	236
= Enterprise Value		243	296
(-) Net Debt		-65	-65
Equity Value		308	361
(/) Outstanding shares		61	61
Fair Price		$5	$6

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$5.46

-31.5%