Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.4% to 0.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 46, DPO 24, DIO 1). At a 8.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (89% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 16.4x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $356.42 per share, suggesting JBHT is undervalued by 72.1% at the current price of $207.16.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,352 | 1,444 | 1,519 | 1,668 | 1,683 | 1,725 |
| (−) Net Interest | 62 | 66 | 69 | 76 | 77 | 79 |
| (+) D&A | 1,189 | 1,228 | 1,163 | 1,047 | 1,155 | 1,184 |
| EBITDA | 2,603 | 2,738 | 2,751 | 2,791 | 2,915 | 2,988 |
| (−) Tax | 324 | 346 | 364 | 400 | 403 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,140 | 1,218 | 1,280 | 1,406 | 1,419 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 155 | 61 | 50 | 100 | 10 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 984 | 1,113 | 1,057 | 885 | 1,083 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 16.4x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 49,027 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.58% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 945 | 984 | 861 | 664 | 748 | 32,485 |
| Enterprise Value | 36,685 | |||||
| Projection Period | 4,200 | 11.4% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 32,485 | 88.6% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,871 | |||||
| Equity Value | 34,814 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 98M | |||||
| Fair Price | $356 | +72.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 12.4x | 14.4x | 16.4x | 18.4x | 20.4x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $302 | $346 | $391 | $435 | $480 |
| 7.6% | $288 | $331 | $373 | $416 | $458 |
| 8.6% | $275 | $316 | $356 | $397 | $437 |
| 9.6% | $263 | $302 | $341 | $379 | $418 |
| 10.6% | $252 | $289 | $326 | $363 | $400 |
Current price: $207.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.