Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Iron Mountain Incorporated's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 12.2% to -0.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 80, DPO 75, DIO 60). At a 6.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (90% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $176.90 per share, suggesting IRM is undervalued by 76.6% at the current price of $100.16.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,396 | 1,522 | 1,634 | 1,782 | 1,776 | 1,820 |
| (−) Net Interest | 838 | 913 | 981 | 1,069 | 1,065 | 1,092 |
| (+) D&A | 1,396 | 1,639 | 1,863 | 2,025 | 2,124 | 2,177 |
| EBITDA | 3,630 | 4,074 | 4,478 | 4,876 | 4,965 | 5,089 |
| (−) Tax | 306 | 333 | 358 | 390 | 389 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,840 | 2,005 | 2,153 | 2,348 | 2,340 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 808 | 138 | 124 | 163 | -7 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 677 | 1,597 | 1,843 | 1,975 | 2,243 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 17.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 89,311 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.67% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 655 | 1,450 | 1,568 | 1,575 | 1,677 | 64,664 |
| Enterprise Value | 71,589 | |||||
| Projection Period | 6,925 | 9.7% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 64,664 | 90.3% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 18,893 | |||||
| Equity Value | 52,696 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 298M | |||||
| Fair Price | $177 | +76.7% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 13.5x | 15.5x | 17.5x | 19.5x | 21.5x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.7% | $145 | $173 | $200 | $227 | $254 |
| 5.7% | $136 | $162 | $188 | $214 | $240 |
| 6.7% | $127 | $152 | $177 | $202 | $226 |
| 7.7% | $119 | $143 | $166 | $190 | $214 |
| 8.7% | $111 | $134 | $156 | $179 | $202 |
Current price: $100.16. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.