Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Intel Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 2.0% to -9.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 28, DPO 97, DIO 124). At a 8.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (100% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 29.9x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $97.84 per share, suggesting INTC is undervalued by 122.0% at the current price of $44.07.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,730 | 1,859 | 1,984 | 2,397 | 2,168 | 2,222 |
| (−) Net Interest | 731 | 785 | 838 | 1,012 | 915 | 938 |
| (+) D&A | 21,944 | 21,883 | 21,175 | 20,618 | 21,377 | 21,911 |
| EBITDA | 24,405 | 24,527 | 23,997 | 24,027 | 24,460 | 25,072 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 20,025 | 21,510 | 22,964 | 27,740 | 25,086 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 909 | 481 | 471 | 1,546 | -859 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 3,471 | 2,536 | 563 | -5,259 | 234 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 29.9x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 750,392 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.23% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 3,336 | 2,252 | 462 | -3,987 | 164 | 505,196 |
| Enterprise Value | 507,423 | |||||
| Projection Period | 2,227 | 0.4% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 505,196 | 99.6% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 32,320 | |||||
| Equity Value | 475,103 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 4856M | |||||
| Fair Price | $98 | +122.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 25.9x | 27.9x | 29.9x | 31.9x | 33.9x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.2% | $93 | $100 | $108 | $116 | $123 |
| 7.2% | $88 | $95 | $103 | $110 | $117 |
| 8.2% | $84 | $91 | $98 | $105 | $112 |
| 9.2% | $80 | $87 | $93 | $100 | $106 |
| 10.2% | $76 | $82 | $89 | $95 | $101 |
Current price: $44.07. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.