Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -49.0% to 17.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 764, DPO 4599, DIO 60). At a 9.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (38% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $1160.40 per share, suggesting GS is undervalued by 40.8% at the current price of $824.06.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -2,277 | -2,384 | -2,431 | -2,549 | -3,002 | -3,078 |
| (−) Net Interest | 26,580 | 27,834 | 28,379 | 29,756 | 35,049 | 35,925 |
| (+) D&A | 2,977 | 2,505 | 2,238 | 2,267 | 2,365 | 2,424 |
| EBITDA | 27,280 | 27,954 | 28,186 | 29,474 | 34,411 | 35,272 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 2,306 | 2,414 | 2,462 | 2,581 | 3,040 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -368,110 | -9,713 | -4,222 | -10,668 | -41,007 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 393,085 | 35,252 | 29,946 | 37,561 | 72,378 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 13.8x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 488,514 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.61% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 375,453 | 30,718 | 23,806 | 27,241 | 47,889 | 308,724 |
| Enterprise Value | 813,832 | |||||
| Projection Period | 505,107 | 62.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 308,724 | 37.9% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 445,275 | |||||
| Equity Value | 368,557 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 318M | |||||
| Fair Price | $1160 | +40.8% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 9.8x | 11.8x | 13.8x | 15.8x | 17.8x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $982 | $1136 | $1290 | $1444 | $1598 |
| 8.6% | $930 | $1077 | $1224 | $1371 | $1518 |
| 9.6% | $880 | $1020 | $1160 | $1301 | $1441 |
| 10.6% | $832 | $966 | $1100 | $1234 | $1368 |
| 11.6% | $786 | $915 | $1043 | $1171 | $1299 |
Current price: $824.06. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.