Genuine Parts Company

GPC

Consumer CyclicalSpecialty RetailNYSE

$104.72

Market Cap: $14.57B

Genuine Parts Company (GPC) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 07:35

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$133.69 – $1,202.64	$260.74	+149.0%
Growth Exit 10Y	$160.29 – $1,323.70	$299.90	+186.4%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$137.01 – $309.00	$215.83	+106.1%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$159.49 – $372.90	$250.58	+139.3%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$9.11 – $12.33	$75.81	-27.6%
EV/EBITDA	-$0.30 – $43.90	$14.57	-86.1%
EV/Revenue	$199.11 – $321.57	$282.19	+169.5%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$192.26 – $192.26	$192.26	+83.6%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$70.87 – $148.06	$100.46	-4.1%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$51.28 – $113.55	$72.66	-30.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$260.74

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

+149.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Genuine Parts Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.7% to 6.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 35, DPO 140, DIO 124). At a 6.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (81% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $260.74 per share, suggesting GPC is undervalued by 149.0% at the current price of $104.72.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.43%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,880	1,951	2,049	2,151	2,292	2,349
(−) Net Interest	103	107	112	118	126	129
(+) D&A	431	475	507	510	508	520
EBITDA	2,415	2,533	2,669	2,780	2,925	2,998

(−) Tax	267	277	291	306	326	334
(−) CapEx	484	503	528	554	590	605
(−) ΔWC	-671	64	90	93	128	132
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	2,334	1,688	1,760	1,826	1,881	1,928

Terminal Value						49,040
WACC / Discount Rate	6.4%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,263	1,538	1,506	1,468	1,421	35,910

Enterprise Value	44,106
Projection Period	8,196	18.6%
Terminal Value	35,910	81.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,798

Equity Value	36,308
(/) Outstanding Shares	139

Fair Price	$260.74

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.4%	$386	$464	$583	$784	$1203
5.4%	$274	$314	$367	$441	$554
6.4%	$208	$232	$261	$298	$349
7.4%	$165	$180	$198	$220	$248
8.4%	$134	$144	$156	$170	$188

Current price: $104.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$299.90

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

+186.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Genuine Parts Company's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.7% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 35, DPO 140, DIO 124). At a 6.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (69% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $299.90 per share, suggesting GPC is undervalued by 186.4% at the current price of $104.72.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.43%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,880	1,951	2,049	2,151	2,292	2,428	2,558	2,680	2,791	2,892	2,964
(−) Net Interest	103	107	112	118	126	133	140	147	153	159	163
(+) D&A	431	475	507	510	508	532	560	591	624	657	673
EBITDA	2,415	2,533	2,669	2,780	2,925	3,093	3,258	3,418	3,568	3,707	3,800

(−) Tax	267	277	291	306	326	345	364	381	397	411	421
(−) CapEx	484	503	528	554	590	625	659	690	719	745	764
(−) ΔWC	-671	64	90	93	128	124	119	111	102	92	94
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	2,334	1,688	1,760	1,826	1,881	1,998	2,117	2,235	2,350	2,460	2,521

Terminal Value											64,133
WACC / Discount Rate	6.4%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,263	1,538	1,506	1,468	1,421	1,418	1,412	1,401	1,384	1,361	34,387

Enterprise Value	49,558
Projection Period	15,171	30.6%
Terminal Value	34,387	69.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,798

Equity Value	41,761
(/) Outstanding Shares	139

Fair Price	$299.90

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.4%	$464	$546	$671	$883	$1324
5.4%	$329	$369	$422	$497	$610
6.4%	$250	$272	$300	$336	$384
7.4%	$197	$211	$228	$248	$273
8.4%	$160	$169	$180	$192	$207

Current price: $104.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$215.87

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

+106.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Genuine Parts Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.7% to 6.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 35, DPO 140, DIO 124). At a 6.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.5x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $215.83 per share, suggesting GPC is undervalued by 106.1% at the current price of $104.72.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.43%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.51x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,880	1,951	2,049	2,151	2,292	2,349
(−) Net Interest	103	107	112	118	126	129
(+) D&A	431	475	507	510	508	520
EBITDA	2,415	2,533	2,669	2,780	2,925	2,998

(−) Tax	267	277	291	306	326	—
(−) CapEx	484	503	528	554	590	—
(−) ΔWC	-671	64	90	93	128	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	2,334	1,688	1,760	1,826	1,881	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						13.5x
Terminal Value						40,508
WACC / Discount Rate	6.43%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,263	1,538	1,506	1,468	1,421	29,662

Enterprise Value	37,858
Projection Period	8,196	21.6%
Terminal Value	29,662	78.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,798
Equity Value	30,060
(÷) Outstanding Shares	139M
Fair Price	$216	+106.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.5x	11.5x	13.5x	15.5x	17.5x
4.4%	$170	$205	$240	$274	$309
5.4%	$161	$194	$227	$260	$294
6.4%	$153	$184	$216	$247	$279
7.4%	$145	$175	$205	$235	$265
8.4%	$137	$166	$194	$223	$252

Current price: $104.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$250.62

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

+139.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Genuine Parts Company's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.7% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 35, DPO 140, DIO 124). At a 6.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (64% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.5x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $250.58 per share, suggesting GPC is undervalued by 139.3% at the current price of $104.72.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.43%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.51x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,880	1,951	2,049	2,151	2,292	2,428	2,558	2,680	2,791	2,892	2,964
(−) Net Interest	103	107	112	118	126	133	140	147	153	159	163
(+) D&A	431	475	507	510	508	532	560	591	624	657	673
EBITDA	2,415	2,533	2,669	2,780	2,925	3,093	3,258	3,418	3,568	3,707	3,800

(−) Tax	267	277	291	306	326	345	364	381	397	411	—
(−) CapEx	484	503	528	554	590	625	659	690	719	745	—
(−) ΔWC	-671	64	90	93	128	124	119	111	102	92	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	2,334	1,688	1,760	1,826	1,881	1,998	2,117	2,235	2,350	2,460	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											13.5x
Terminal Value											51,335
WACC / Discount Rate	6.43%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,263	1,538	1,506	1,468	1,421	1,418	1,412	1,401	1,384	1,361	27,525

Enterprise Value	42,696
Projection Period	15,171	35.5%
Terminal Value	27,525	64.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,798
Equity Value	34,898
(÷) Outstanding Shares	139M
Fair Price	$251	+139.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.5x	11.5x	13.5x	15.5x	17.5x
4.4%	$231	$267	$302	$338	$373
5.4%	$211	$243	$275	$307	$339
6.4%	$192	$221	$251	$280	$309
7.4%	$175	$202	$228	$255	$282
8.4%	$159	$184	$208	$232	$257

Current price: $104.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$75.81

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

-27.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Genuine Parts Company (GPC) has a fair value of $75.81 based on 9 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.

P/E Valuation — Specialty Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Genuine Parts CompanyGPC	14,582	222.8x	13.7x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	31,859	58.7x	47.5x
Ulta Beauty, Inc.ULTA	23,029	20.5x	18.5x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	19,933	26.0x	22.5x
Burlington Stores, Inc.BURL	19,132	32.0x	31.1x
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.DKS	18,773	22.6x	15.8x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,449	25.0x	11.0x
Yum China Holdings, Inc.YUMC	16,896	19.2x	20.8x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	15,389	9.9x	10.1x
Best Buy Co., Inc.BBY	12,446	11.8x	9.2x
Industry Median		22.6x	18.5x
(*) Profit after tax		66	1,063
Equity Value		1,494	19,620
(/) Outstanding shares		139	139
Fair Price		$11	$141

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$75.81

-27.6%

Fair Value

$14.57

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

-86.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Genuine Parts Company (GPC) has a fair value of $14.57 based on 9 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Specialty Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Genuine Parts CompanyGPC	14,582	29.7x	29.7x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	31,859	28.7x	26.6x
Ulta Beauty, Inc.ULTA	23,029	13.4x	12.6x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	19,933	13.5x	13.4x
Burlington Stores, Inc.BURL	19,132	18.9x	19.0x
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.DKS	18,773	13.8x	10.7x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,449	18.5x	18.4x
Yum China Holdings, Inc.YUMC	16,896	10.3x	10.7x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	15,389	5.6x	5.7x
Best Buy Co., Inc.BBY	12,446	6.5x	6.5x
Industry Median		13.5x	12.6x
(*) EBITDA		754	754
= Enterprise Value		10,180	9,473
(-) Net Debt		7,798	7,798
Equity Value		2,383	1,675
(/) Outstanding shares		139	139
Fair Price		$17	$12

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$14.57

-86.1%

Fair Value

$282.19

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

+169.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Genuine Parts Company (GPC) has a fair value of $282.19 based on 9 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Specialty Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Genuine Parts CompanyGPC	14,582	0.9x	0.9x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	31,859	2.2x	2.0x
Ulta Beauty, Inc.ULTA	23,029	2.0x	1.9x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	19,933	2.6x	2.6x
Burlington Stores, Inc.BURL	19,132	2.1x	2.1x
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.DKS	18,773	1.5x	1.1x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,449	2.2x	2.2x
Yum China Holdings, Inc.YUMC	16,896	1.6x	1.7x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	15,389	1.4x	1.4x
Best Buy Co., Inc.BBY	12,446	0.4x	0.4x
Industry Median		2.0x	1.9x
(*) Revenue		24,300	24,318
= Enterprise Value		48,602	45,583
(-) Net Debt		7,798	7,798
Equity Value		40,804	37,785
(/) Outstanding shares		139	139
Fair Price		$293	$271

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$282.19

+169.5%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$192.26

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

+83.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0% plus 3.9% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $192.26 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $7.69. The current PEG ratio is 0.08.

PEG Ratio

0.08Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 13.6 ÷ (170.1% + 3.9%) = 0.08

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	170.1%
Dividend Yield	+3.9%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$7.69
Fair Value	$192.26

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$0.47	—	—
FY2026E	$7.69	+1536.3%	7
FY2027E	$8.37	+8.9%	6
FY2028E	$9.26	+10.6%	3

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 170.1%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$898.8M	$6.23	—
FY2022	$1.2B	$8.31	+33.4%
FY2023	$1.3B	$9.33	+12.3%
FY2024	$904.1M	$6.47	-30.7%
FY2025	$65.9M	$0.47	-92.7%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -47.6%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$100.46

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

-4.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.4% and normalized earnings of $1.4B, the company has a fair value of $100.46 per share. The EPV range is $70.87 – $148.06 based on WACC sensitivity (4.9% – 7.9%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	1,401	1,401	1,401
(/) WACC	7.9%	6.4%	4.9%
Enterprise Value	17,666	21,787	28,414
(-) Net debt	7,798	7,798	7,798
Equity Value	9,869	13,989	20,617
(/) Outstanding shares	139	139	139
Fair Price	$70.87	$100.46	$148.06

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$72.66

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

-30.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 9.2% and projected dividend growth of 6.2%, the fair value is $72.66 per share. The DDM range is $51.28 – $113.55 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$4.05

Dividend Yield

3.87%

Payout Ratio

855.0%

Dividend Coverage

0.12x

FCF Payout Ratio134.0%

DPS CAGR (4Y)5.8%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$4.05	855.0%	+1.9%
2024	$3.97	61.4%	+6.4%
2023	$3.73	40.0%	+7.2%
2022	$3.48	41.9%	+7.9%
2021	$3.23	51.8%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$4.30	6.2%	0.9158	$3.94
2027	$4.57	6.2%	0.8386	$3.83
2028	$4.85	6.2%	0.7680	$3.73
2029	$5.16	6.2%	0.7033	$3.63
2030	$5.48	6.2%	0.6441	$3.53
Terminal Value	$5.62 DPS	2.5%		$54.00

PV of Projected Dividends$18.66

PV of Terminal Value$54.00

Fair Value per Share$72.66

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	4.2%	5.2%	6.2%	7.2%	8.2%
7.2%	$95	$100	$104	$109	$114
8.2%	$79	$82	$86	$89	$93
9.2%	$67	$70	$73	$76	$79
10.2%	$58	$60	$63	$66	$68
11.2%	$51	$53	$56	$58	$60

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Genuine Parts Company (GPC) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 07:35

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$133.69 – $1,202.64	$260.74	+149.0%
Growth Exit 10Y	$160.29 – $1,323.70	$299.90	+186.4%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$137.01 – $309.00	$215.83	+106.1%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$159.49 – $372.90	$250.58	+139.3%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$9.11 – $12.33	$75.81	-27.6%
EV/EBITDA	-$0.30 – $43.90	$14.57	-86.1%
EV/Revenue	$199.11 – $321.57	$282.19	+169.5%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$192.26 – $192.26	$192.26	+83.6%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$70.87 – $148.06	$100.46	-4.1%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$51.28 – $113.55	$72.66	-30.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$260.74

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

+149.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.43%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,880	1,951	2,049	2,151	2,292	2,349
(−) Net Interest	103	107	112	118	126	129
(+) D&A	431	475	507	510	508	520
EBITDA	2,415	2,533	2,669	2,780	2,925	2,998

(−) Tax	267	277	291	306	326	334
(−) CapEx	484	503	528	554	590	605
(−) ΔWC	-671	64	90	93	128	132
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	2,334	1,688	1,760	1,826	1,881	1,928

Terminal Value						49,040
WACC / Discount Rate	6.4%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,263	1,538	1,506	1,468	1,421	35,910

Enterprise Value	44,106
Projection Period	8,196	18.6%
Terminal Value	35,910	81.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,798

Equity Value	36,308
(/) Outstanding Shares	139

Fair Price	$260.74

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.4%	$386	$464	$583	$784	$1203
5.4%	$274	$314	$367	$441	$554
6.4%	$208	$232	$261	$298	$349
7.4%	$165	$180	$198	$220	$248
8.4%	$134	$144	$156	$170	$188

Current price: $104.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$299.90

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

+186.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.43%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,880	1,951	2,049	2,151	2,292	2,428	2,558	2,680	2,791	2,892	2,964
(−) Net Interest	103	107	112	118	126	133	140	147	153	159	163
(+) D&A	431	475	507	510	508	532	560	591	624	657	673
EBITDA	2,415	2,533	2,669	2,780	2,925	3,093	3,258	3,418	3,568	3,707	3,800

(−) Tax	267	277	291	306	326	345	364	381	397	411	421
(−) CapEx	484	503	528	554	590	625	659	690	719	745	764
(−) ΔWC	-671	64	90	93	128	124	119	111	102	92	94
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	2,334	1,688	1,760	1,826	1,881	1,998	2,117	2,235	2,350	2,460	2,521

Terminal Value											64,133
WACC / Discount Rate	6.4%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,263	1,538	1,506	1,468	1,421	1,418	1,412	1,401	1,384	1,361	34,387

Enterprise Value	49,558
Projection Period	15,171	30.6%
Terminal Value	34,387	69.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,798

Equity Value	41,761
(/) Outstanding Shares	139

Fair Price	$299.90

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
4.4%	$464	$546	$671	$883	$1324
5.4%	$329	$369	$422	$497	$610
6.4%	$250	$272	$300	$336	$384
7.4%	$197	$211	$228	$248	$273
8.4%	$160	$169	$180	$192	$207

Current price: $104.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$215.87

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

+106.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Genuine Parts Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.7% to 6.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 35, DPO 140, DIO 124). At a 6.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.5x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $215.83 per share, suggesting GPC is undervalued by 106.1% at the current price of $104.72.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.43%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.51x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,880	1,951	2,049	2,151	2,292	2,349
(−) Net Interest	103	107	112	118	126	129
(+) D&A	431	475	507	510	508	520
EBITDA	2,415	2,533	2,669	2,780	2,925	2,998

(−) Tax	267	277	291	306	326	—
(−) CapEx	484	503	528	554	590	—
(−) ΔWC	-671	64	90	93	128	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	2,334	1,688	1,760	1,826	1,881	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						13.5x
Terminal Value						40,508
WACC / Discount Rate	6.43%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,263	1,538	1,506	1,468	1,421	29,662

Enterprise Value	37,858
Projection Period	8,196	21.6%
Terminal Value	29,662	78.4%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,798
Equity Value	30,060
(÷) Outstanding Shares	139M
Fair Price	$216	+106.1%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.5x	11.5x	13.5x	15.5x	17.5x
4.4%	$170	$205	$240	$274	$309
5.4%	$161	$194	$227	$260	$294
6.4%	$153	$184	$216	$247	$279
7.4%	$145	$175	$205	$235	$265
8.4%	$137	$166	$194	$223	$252

Current price: $104.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$250.62

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

+139.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Genuine Parts Company's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.7% to 3.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 35, DPO 140, DIO 124). At a 6.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (64% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.5x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $250.58 per share, suggesting GPC is undervalued by 139.3% at the current price of $104.72.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

6.43%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

13.51x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	1,880	1,951	2,049	2,151	2,292	2,428	2,558	2,680	2,791	2,892	2,964
(−) Net Interest	103	107	112	118	126	133	140	147	153	159	163
(+) D&A	431	475	507	510	508	532	560	591	624	657	673
EBITDA	2,415	2,533	2,669	2,780	2,925	3,093	3,258	3,418	3,568	3,707	3,800

(−) Tax	267	277	291	306	326	345	364	381	397	411	—
(−) CapEx	484	503	528	554	590	625	659	690	719	745	—
(−) ΔWC	-671	64	90	93	128	124	119	111	102	92	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	2,334	1,688	1,760	1,826	1,881	1,998	2,117	2,235	2,350	2,460	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											13.5x
Terminal Value											51,335
WACC / Discount Rate	6.43%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	2,263	1,538	1,506	1,468	1,421	1,418	1,412	1,401	1,384	1,361	27,525

Enterprise Value	42,696
Projection Period	15,171	35.5%
Terminal Value	27,525	64.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	7,798
Equity Value	34,898
(÷) Outstanding Shares	139M
Fair Price	$251	+139.3%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	9.5x	11.5x	13.5x	15.5x	17.5x
4.4%	$231	$267	$302	$338	$373
5.4%	$211	$243	$275	$307	$339
6.4%	$192	$221	$251	$280	$309
7.4%	$175	$202	$228	$255	$282
8.4%	$159	$184	$208	$232	$257

Current price: $104.72. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$75.81

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

-27.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), Genuine Parts Company (GPC) has a fair value of $75.81 based on 9 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.

P/E Valuation — Specialty Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
Genuine Parts CompanyGPC	14,582	222.8x	13.7x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	31,859	58.7x	47.5x
Ulta Beauty, Inc.ULTA	23,029	20.5x	18.5x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	19,933	26.0x	22.5x
Burlington Stores, Inc.BURL	19,132	32.0x	31.1x
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.DKS	18,773	22.6x	15.8x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,449	25.0x	11.0x
Yum China Holdings, Inc.YUMC	16,896	19.2x	20.8x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	15,389	9.9x	10.1x
Best Buy Co., Inc.BBY	12,446	11.8x	9.2x
Industry Median		22.6x	18.5x
(*) Profit after tax		66	1,063
Equity Value		1,494	19,620
(/) Outstanding shares		139	139
Fair Price		$11	$141

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$75.81

-27.6%

Fair Value

$14.57

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

-86.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), Genuine Parts Company (GPC) has a fair value of $14.57 based on 9 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Specialty Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
Genuine Parts CompanyGPC	14,582	29.7x	29.7x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	31,859	28.7x	26.6x
Ulta Beauty, Inc.ULTA	23,029	13.4x	12.6x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	19,933	13.5x	13.4x
Burlington Stores, Inc.BURL	19,132	18.9x	19.0x
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.DKS	18,773	13.8x	10.7x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,449	18.5x	18.4x
Yum China Holdings, Inc.YUMC	16,896	10.3x	10.7x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	15,389	5.6x	5.7x
Best Buy Co., Inc.BBY	12,446	6.5x	6.5x
Industry Median		13.5x	12.6x
(*) EBITDA		754	754
= Enterprise Value		10,180	9,473
(-) Net Debt		7,798	7,798
Equity Value		2,383	1,675
(/) Outstanding shares		139	139
Fair Price		$17	$12

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$14.57

-86.1%

Fair Value

$282.19

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

+169.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Genuine Parts Company (GPC) has a fair value of $282.19 based on 9 comparable companies in the Specialty Retail industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Specialty Retail

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Genuine Parts CompanyGPC	14,582	0.9x	0.9x
Casey's General Stores, Inc.CASY	31,859	2.2x	2.0x
Ulta Beauty, Inc.ULTA	23,029	2.0x	1.9x
Packaging Corporation of AmericaPKG	19,933	2.6x	2.6x
Burlington Stores, Inc.BURL	19,132	2.1x	2.1x
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.DKS	18,773	1.5x	1.1x
Amcor plcAMCR	18,449	2.2x	2.2x
Yum China Holdings, Inc.YUMC	16,896	1.6x	1.7x
Lululemon Athletica Inc.LULU	15,389	1.4x	1.4x
Best Buy Co., Inc.BBY	12,446	0.4x	0.4x
Industry Median		2.0x	1.9x
(*) Revenue		24,300	24,318
= Enterprise Value		48,602	45,583
(-) Net Debt		7,798	7,798
Equity Value		40,804	37,785
(/) Outstanding shares		139	139
Fair Price		$293	$271

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$282.19

+169.5%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$192.26

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

+83.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

PEG Ratio

0.08Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 13.6 ÷ (170.1% + 3.9%) = 0.08

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG moderately applicable

Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	170.1%
Dividend Yield	+3.9%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped	25.0%
Fair P/E	25.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$7.69
Fair Value	$192.26

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$0.47	—	—
FY2026E	$7.69	+1536.3%	7
FY2027E	$8.37	+8.9%	6
FY2028E	$9.26	+10.6%	3

3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 170.1%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$898.8M	$6.23	—
FY2022	$1.2B	$8.31	+33.4%
FY2023	$1.3B	$9.33	+12.3%
FY2024	$904.1M	$6.47	-30.7%
FY2025	$65.9M	$0.47	-92.7%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -47.6%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$100.46

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

-4.1%

Verdict

Overvalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	1,401	1,401	1,401
(/) WACC	7.9%	6.4%	4.9%
Enterprise Value	17,666	21,787	28,414
(-) Net debt	7,798	7,798	7,798
Equity Value	9,869	13,989	20,617
(/) Outstanding shares	139	139	139
Fair Price	$70.87	$100.46	$148.06

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$72.66

Market Price

$104.72

Upside / Downside

-30.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$4.05

Dividend Yield

3.87%

Payout Ratio

855.0%

Dividend Coverage

0.12x

FCF Payout Ratio134.0%

DPS CAGR (4Y)5.8%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$4.05	855.0%	+1.9%
2024	$3.97	61.4%	+6.4%
2023	$3.73	40.0%	+7.2%
2022	$3.48	41.9%	+7.9%
2021	$3.23	51.8%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$4.30	6.2%	0.9158	$3.94
2027	$4.57	6.2%	0.8386	$3.83
2028	$4.85	6.2%	0.7680	$3.73
2029	$5.16	6.2%	0.7033	$3.63
2030	$5.48	6.2%	0.6441	$3.53
Terminal Value	$5.62 DPS	2.5%		$54.00

PV of Projected Dividends$18.66

PV of Terminal Value$54.00

Fair Value per Share$72.66

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	4.2%	5.2%	6.2%	7.2%	8.2%
7.2%	$95	$100	$104	$109	$114
8.2%	$79	$82	$86	$89	$93
9.2%	$67	$70	$73	$76	$79
10.2%	$58	$60	$63	$66	$68
11.2%	$51	$53	$56	$58	$60