Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Corning Incorporated's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 19.7% to 2.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 53, DPO 65, DIO 109). At a 9.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (95% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 26.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $99.41 per share, suggesting GLW is overvalued by 26.9% at the current price of $135.97.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,796 | 2,041 | 2,381 | 2,444 | 2,509 | 2,571 |
| (−) Net Interest | 429 | 487 | 569 | 584 | 599 | 614 |
| (+) D&A | 1,376 | 1,419 | 1,520 | 1,733 | 2,045 | 2,096 |
| EBITDA | 3,601 | 3,948 | 4,469 | 4,761 | 5,152 | 5,281 |
| (−) Tax | 381 | 433 | 505 | 518 | 532 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 1,854 | 2,107 | 2,458 | 2,523 | 2,589 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 344 | 576 | 799 | 148 | 152 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,022 | 832 | 708 | 1,572 | 1,880 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 26.1x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 137,733 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.01% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 979 | 731 | 570 | 1,162 | 1,275 | 89,461 |
| Enterprise Value | 94,178 | |||||
| Projection Period | 4,717 | 5.0% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 89,461 | 95.0% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 8,697 | |||||
| Equity Value | 85,481 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 860M | |||||
| Fair Price | $99 | -26.9% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 22.1x | 24.1x | 26.1x | 28.1x | 30.1x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $92 | $101 | $110 | $119 | $127 |
| 8.0% | $88 | $96 | $104 | $113 | $121 |
| 9.0% | $83 | $91 | $99 | $107 | $115 |
| 10.0% | $79 | $87 | $95 | $102 | $110 |
| 11.0% | $76 | $83 | $90 | $97 | $105 |
Current price: $135.97. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.