Geron Corporation

GERN

HealthcareBiotechnologyNASDAQ

$1.41

Market Cap: $904.54M

Geron Corporation (GERN) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 6, 2026 22:26

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$16.76 – $33.43	$22.47	+1183.8%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$35.85 – $82.01	$51.35	+2834.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$3.27 – $5.38	$3.19	+82.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Geron Corporation (GERN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$51.35

Market Price

$1.41

Upside / Downside

+3541.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -29.3% to a target of 13.3% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 9.4%, Geron Corporation (GERN) has an intrinsic value of $51.35 per share (range: $35.85 – $82.01).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-29.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

9.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

87.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

192.0%

D&A/Revenue

128.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	229	24.7%	-20.8%	-48	-48	294	(225)	-1,556	1,577	1,508
2027	330	44.1%	-12.2%	-40	-40	423	(359)	-674	698	610
2028	481	45.7%	-3.7%	-18	-18	616	(573)	-1,006	1,032	824
2029	687	42.8%	4.8%	33	26	880	(889)	-1,372	1,389	1,014
2030	914	32.9%	13.3%	122	96	1,169	(1,277)	-1,508	1,497	998
2031	1,188	30.0%	13.3%	158	125	1,520	(1,785)	-1,827	1,687	1,029
2032	1,544	30.0%	13.3%	206	163	1,976	(2,481)	-2,375	2,033	1,133
2033	2,007	30.0%	13.3%	268	212	2,569	(3,435)	-3,087	2,433	1,239
2034	2,609	30.0%	13.3%	348	275	3,340	(4,738)	-4,013	2,891	1,345
2035	3,392	30.0%	13.3%	452	357	4,342	(6,513)	-5,217	3,404	1,448

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)11,147

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)54,663

PV of Terminal Value23,255

Enterprise Value34,402

(–) Net Debt172

Equity Value34,230

(÷) Shares Outstanding667

Fair Value per Share$51.35

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
7.4%	$75	$77	$79	$80	$82
8.4%	$60	$61	$62	$64	$65
9.4%	$49	$50	$51	$52	$53
10.4%	$42	$42	$43	$44	$45
11.4%	$36	$37	$37	$38	$39

Current price: $1.41. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at -666.5% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Geron Corporation (GERN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$22.47

Market Price

$1.41

Upside / Downside

+1493.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-29.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

9.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

87.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

192.0%

D&A/Revenue

128.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	229	24.7%	-20.8%	-48	-48	294	(249)	-1,556	1,553	1,485
2027	330	44.1%	-12.2%	-40	-40	423	(428)	-674	629	549
2028	481	45.7%	-3.7%	-18	-18	616	(723)	-1,006	881	704
2029	687	42.8%	4.8%	33	26	880	(1,176)	-1,372	1,102	804
2030	914	32.9%	13.3%	122	96	1,169	(1,754)	-1,508	1,020	680

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)4,223

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)16,381

PV of Terminal Value10,927

Enterprise Value15,150

(–) Net Debt172

Equity Value14,978

(÷) Shares Outstanding667

Fair Value per Share$22.47

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
7.4%	$31	$32	$32	$33	$33
8.4%	$25	$26	$26	$27	$27
9.4%	$22	$22	$22	$23	$23
10.4%	$19	$19	$20	$20	$20
11.4%	$17	$17	$17	$18	$18

Current price: $1.41. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$3.22

Market Price

$1.41

Upside / Downside

+128.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Geron Corporation (GERN) has a fair value of $3.22 based on 4 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Geron CorporationGERN	940	6.0x	4.8x
Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.DAWN	2,217	12.8x	8.4x
Vir Biotechnology, Inc.VIR	1,448	20.4x	10.1x
Arvinas, Inc.ARVN	721	2.2x	6.3x
LENZ Therapeutics, Inc.LENZ	301	14.5x	9.8x
Industry Median		13.6x	9.1x
(*) Revenue		184	234
= Enterprise Value		2,507	2,124
(-) Net Debt		172	172
Equity Value		2,335	1,952
(/) Outstanding shares		667	667
Fair Price		$4	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$3.22

+128.0%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$16.76 – $33.43

$22.47

+1183.8%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$35.85 – $82.01

$51.35

+2834.0%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$3.27 – $5.38

$3.19

+82.0%

DCF Analysis

Geron Corporation (GERN) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$51.35

Market Price

$1.41

Upside / Downside

+3541.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-29.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.3%

WACC

9.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

87.7%

Target CapEx/Rev

192.0%

D&A/Revenue

128.0%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	229	24.7%	-20.8%	-48	-48	294	(225)	-1,556	1,577	1,508
2027	330	44.1%	-12.2%	-40	-40	423	(359)	-674	698	610
2028	481	45.7%	-3.7%	-18	-18	616	(573)	-1,006	1,032	824
2029	687	42.8%	4.8%	33	26	880	(889)	-1,372	1,389	1,014
2030	914	32.9%	13.3%	122	96	1,169	(1,277)	-1,508	1,497	998
2031	1,188	30.0%	13.3%	158	125	1,520	(1,785)	-1,827	1,687	1,029
2032	1,544	30.0%	13.3%	206	163	1,976	(2,481)	-2,375	2,033	1,133
2033	2,007	30.0%	13.3%	268	212	2,569	(3,435)	-3,087	2,433	1,239
2034	2,609	30.0%	13.3%	348	275	3,340	(4,738)	-4,013	2,891	1,345
2035	3,392	30.0%	13.3%	452	357	4,342	(6,513)	-5,217	3,404	1,448

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)11,147

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)54,663

PV of Terminal Value23,255

Enterprise Value34,402

(–) Net Debt172

Equity Value34,230

(÷) Shares Outstanding667

Fair Value per Share$51.35

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.3%	10.3%	13.3%	16.3%	19.3%
7.4%	$75	$77	$79	$80	$82
8.4%	$60	$61	$62	$64	$65
9.4%	$49	$50	$51	$52	$53
10.4%	$42	$42	$43	$44	$45
11.4%	$36	$37	$37	$38	$39

Current price: $1.41. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$3.22

Market Price

$1.41

Upside / Downside

+128.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Geron Corporation (GERN) has a fair value of $3.22 based on 4 comparable companies in the Biotechnology industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Biotechnology

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Geron CorporationGERN	940	6.0x	4.8x
Day One Biopharmaceuticals, Inc.DAWN	2,217	12.8x	8.4x
Vir Biotechnology, Inc.VIR	1,448	20.4x	10.1x
Arvinas, Inc.ARVN	721	2.2x	6.3x
LENZ Therapeutics, Inc.LENZ	301	14.5x	9.8x
Industry Median		13.6x	9.1x
(*) Revenue		184	234
= Enterprise Value		2,507	2,124
(-) Net Debt		172	172
Equity Value		2,335	1,952
(/) Outstanding shares		667	667
Fair Price		$4	$3

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$3.22

+128.0%