Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 13.4% to 13.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 3, DPO 6, DIO 4). At a 6.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (88% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 3.0% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $69.21 per share, suggesting FWRG is undervalued by 492.6% at the current price of $11.68.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 244 | 275 | 315 | 350 | 396 | 408 |
| (−) Net Interest | 21 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 35 |
| (+) D&A | 94 | 114 | 132 | 151 | 165 | 170 |
| EBITDA | 359 | 413 | 474 | 531 | 595 | 613 |
| (−) Tax | 122 | 138 | 157 | 175 | 198 | 204 |
| (−) CapEx | 137 | 155 | 177 | 197 | 223 | 230 |
| (−) ΔWC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | 99 | 120 | 139 | 158 | 173 | 178 |
| Terminal Value | 5,988 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.0% | |||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 3.0% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 96 | 110 | 120 | 129 | 133 | 4,480 |
| Enterprise Value | 5,068 | |||||
| Projection Period | 587 | 11.6% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 4,480 | 88.4% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 718 | |||||
| Equity Value | 4,349 | |||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 63 | |||||
| Fair Price | $69.21 | |||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0% | $117 | $157 | $238 | $492 | $45 |
| 5.0% | $73 | $88 | $111 | $149 | $227 |
| 6.0% | $51 | $59 | $69 | $84 | $105 |
| 7.0% | $38 | $43 | $49 | $56 | $66 |
| 8.0% | $30 | $33 | $36 | $41 | $46 |
Current price: $11.68. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 13.4% to 5.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 3, DPO 6, DIO 4). At a 6.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (81% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 3.0% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $105.49 per share, suggesting FWRG is undervalued by 803.1% at the current price of $11.68.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 244 | 275 | 315 | 350 | 396 | 462 | 526 | 585 | 635 | 671 | 692 |
| (−) Net Interest | 21 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 58 | 60 |
| (+) D&A | 94 | 114 | 132 | 151 | 165 | 178 | 202 | 231 | 261 | 293 | 302 |
| EBITDA | 359 | 413 | 474 | 531 | 595 | 680 | 774 | 867 | 951 | 1,023 | 1,053 |
| (−) Tax | 122 | 138 | 157 | 175 | 198 | 231 | 263 | 293 | 318 | 336 | 346 |
| (−) CapEx | 137 | 155 | 177 | 197 | 223 | 260 | 296 | 330 | 357 | 378 | 389 |
| (−) ΔWC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Free Cash Flow (FCFF) | 99 | 120 | 139 | 158 | 173 | 187 | 213 | 243 | 275 | 308 | 317 |
| Terminal Value | 10,672 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.0% | ||||||||||
| Long-term Growth Rate | 3.0% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 96 | 110 | 120 | 129 | 133 | 136 | 146 | 157 | 168 | 177 | 5,975 |
| Enterprise Value | 7,347 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | 1,372 | 18.7% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 5,975 | 81.3% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 718 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 6,629 | ||||||||||
| (/) Outstanding Shares | 63 | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $105.49 | ||||||||||
| WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0% | $186 | $245 | $365 | $738 | $81 |
| 5.0% | $116 | $137 | $169 | $223 | $331 |
| 6.0% | $82 | $92 | $105 | $125 | $154 |
| 7.0% | $61 | $67 | $74 | $83 | $96 |
| 8.0% | $48 | $51 | $55 | $61 | $67 |
Current price: $11.68. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 13.4% to 13.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 3, DPO 6, DIO 4). At a 6.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (91% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $89.97 per share, suggesting FWRG is undervalued by 670.3% at the current price of $11.68.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 244 | 275 | 315 | 350 | 396 | 406 |
| (−) Net Interest | 21 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 35 |
| (+) D&A | 94 | 114 | 132 | 151 | 165 | 169 |
| EBITDA | 359 | 413 | 474 | 531 | 595 | 610 |
| (−) Tax | 122 | 138 | 157 | 175 | 198 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 137 | 155 | 177 | 197 | 223 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 99 | 120 | 139 | 158 | 173 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.7x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 7,731 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.97% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 96 | 110 | 120 | 129 | 133 | 5,785 |
| Enterprise Value | 6,372 | |||||
| Projection Period | 587 | 9.2% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 5,785 | 90.8% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 718 | |||||
| Equity Value | 5,654 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 63M | |||||
| Fair Price | $90 | +670.3% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.7x | 10.7x | 12.7x | 14.7x | 16.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0% | $68 | $84 | $100 | $116 | $132 |
| 5.0% | $64 | $79 | $95 | $110 | $125 |
| 6.0% | $61 | $75 | $90 | $104 | $119 |
| 7.0% | $58 | $72 | $86 | $99 | $113 |
| 8.0% | $55 | $68 | $81 | $95 | $108 |
Current price: $11.68. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 13.4% to 5.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 3, DPO 6, DIO 4). At a 6.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.7x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $128.81 per share, suggesting FWRG is undervalued by 1002.9% at the current price of $11.68.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 244 | 275 | 315 | 350 | 396 | 462 | 526 | 585 | 635 | 671 | 688 |
| (−) Net Interest | 21 | 24 | 27 | 30 | 34 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 58 | 59 |
| (+) D&A | 94 | 114 | 132 | 151 | 165 | 178 | 202 | 231 | 261 | 293 | 301 |
| EBITDA | 359 | 413 | 474 | 531 | 595 | 680 | 774 | 867 | 951 | 1,023 | 1,048 |
| (−) Tax | 122 | 138 | 157 | 175 | 198 | 231 | 263 | 293 | 318 | 336 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 137 | 155 | 177 | 197 | 223 | 260 | 296 | 330 | 357 | 378 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 99 | 120 | 139 | 158 | 173 | 187 | 213 | 243 | 275 | 308 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.7x | ||||||||||
| Terminal Value | 13,291 | ||||||||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.97% | ||||||||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 96 | 110 | 120 | 129 | 133 | 136 | 146 | 157 | 168 | 177 | 7,441 |
| Enterprise Value | 8,813 | ||||||||||
| Projection Period | 1,372 | 15.6% | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 7,441 | 84.4% | |||||||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 718 | ||||||||||
| Equity Value | 8,095 | ||||||||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 63M | ||||||||||
| Fair Price | $129 | +1002.8% | |||||||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.7x | 10.7x | 12.7x | 14.7x | 16.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0% | $111 | $134 | $156 | $179 | $201 |
| 5.0% | $101 | $121 | $142 | $162 | $183 |
| 6.0% | $91 | $110 | $129 | $147 | $166 |
| 7.0% | $83 | $100 | $117 | $134 | $151 |
| 8.0% | $76 | $91 | $107 | $122 | $137 |
Current price: $11.68. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) has a fair value of $4.71 based on 4 comparable companies in the Restaurants industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.FWRG | 734 | 37.7x | 66.4x |
| XPEL, Inc. | 1,239 | 24.3x | 25.9x |
| LGI Homes, Inc. | 899 | 12.5x | 4.7x |
| BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 782 | 17.1x | 29.2x |
| Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 663 | 14.4x | 7.9x |
| Industry Median | 15.7x | 16.9x | |
| (*) Profit after tax | 19 | 11 | |
| Equity Value | 306 | 286 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 63 | 63 | |
| Fair Price | $5 | $5 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) has a fair value of $9.35 based on 6 comparable companies in the Restaurants industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/EBITDA | Forward EV/EBITDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.FWRG | 734 | 13.4x | 11.8x |
| XPEL, Inc. | 1,239 | 15.6x | 17.7x |
| Biglari Holdings Inc. | 1,060 | 19.5x | 9.1x |
| SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING Ltd. American Depositary Shares | 908 | 8.7x | 9.9x |
| LGI Homes, Inc. | 899 | 24.3x | 18.6x |
| BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 782 | 9.7x | 10.1x |
| Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 663 | 9.1x | 9.1x |
| Industry Median | 12.7x | 10.0x | |
| (*) EBITDA | 109 | 123 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 1,379 | 1,233 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 718 | 718 | |
| Equity Value | 661 | 515 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 63 | 63 | |
| Fair Price | $11 | $8 | |
Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) has a fair value of $16.15 based on 9 comparable companies in the Restaurants industry.
USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.
| Mkt Cap ($M) | Trailing EV/Revenue | Forward EV/Revenue | |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.FWRG | 734 | 1.2x | 1.0x |
| XPEL, Inc. | 1,239 | 2.5x | 2.9x |
| Biglari Holdings Inc. | 1,060 | 2.9x | 1.4x |
| SUPER HI INTERNATIONAL HOLDING Ltd. American Depositary Shares | 908 | 1.1x | 1.3x |
| LGI Homes, Inc. | 899 | 1.5x | 1.1x |
| BJ's Restaurants, Inc. | 782 | 0.9x | 0.9x |
| Sweetgreen, Inc. | 681 | 1.4x | 1.3x |
| Fox Factory Holding Corp. | 675 | 1.0x | 1.0x |
| Cracker Barrel Old Country Store, Inc. | 663 | 0.5x | 0.5x |
| Cannae Holdings, Inc. | 629 | 1.8x | 1.6x |
| Industry Median | 1.4x | 1.3x | |
| (*) Revenue | 1,223 | 1,386 | |
| = Enterprise Value | 1,702 | 1,764 | |
| (-) Net Debt | 718 | 718 | |
| Equity Value | 984 | 1,046 | |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 63 | 63 | |
| Fair Price | $16 | $17 | |
Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 11.7%, the company has a fair value of $2.33 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $0.20. The current PEG ratio is 4.88.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 11.7% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 11.7% |
| Fair P/E | 11.7x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $0.20 |
| Fair Value | $2.33 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $0.31 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $0.20 | -36.1% | 8 |
| FY2027E | $0.31 | +58.4% | 8 |
| FY2028E | $0.44 | +40.1% | 5 |
| FY2029E | $0.41 | -6.8% | 3 |
| FY2030E | $0.54 | +31.7% | 3 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 11.7%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $-2.1M | $-0.04 | — |
| FY2022 | $6.9M | $0.11 | — |
| FY2023 | $25.4M | $0.41 | +272.7% |
| FY2024 | $18.9M | $0.30 | -26.8% |
| FY2025 | $19.4M | $0.31 | +3.3% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 83.1%
Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 6.0% and normalized earnings of $104.8M, the company has a fair value of $16.49 per share. The EPV range is $10.88 – $25.85 based on WACC sensitivity (4.5% – 7.5%).
| Low | Selected | High | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | 105 | 105 | 105 |
| (/) WACC | 7.5% | 6.0% | 4.5% |
| Enterprise Value | 1,402 | 1,754 | 2,343 |
| (-) Net debt | 718 | 718 | 718 |
| Equity Value | 684 | 1,036 | 1,625 |
| (/) Outstanding shares | 63 | 63 | 63 |
| Fair Price | $10.88 | $16.49 | $25.85 |
Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.