First Mid Bancshares, Inc.

FMBH

Financial ServicesBanks - RegionalNASDAQ

$43.94

Market Cap: $1.17B

First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 20:28

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$86.53 – $234.96	$127.72	+190.7%
Growth Exit 10Y	$119.46 – $316.56	$174.56	+297.3%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$56.38 – $145.09	$97.02	+120.8%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$89.10 – $207.49	$139.54	+217.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$38.09 – $47.19	$43.41	-1.2%
EV/EBITDA	$25.43 – $35.79	$32.61	-25.8%
EV/Revenue	$26.82 – $46.34	$38.74	-11.8%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$65.85 – $65.85	$65.85	+49.9%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$48.91 – $72.90	$58.96	+34.2%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$15.53 – $40.07	$23.18	-47.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$127.72

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

+190.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Mid Bancshares, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -8.8% to 16.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 20, DIO 60). At a 9.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (77% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $127.72 per share, suggesting FMBH is undervalued by 190.7% at the current price of $43.94.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.22%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	102	109	127	148	173	178
(−) Net Interest	84	89	105	122	143	146
(+) D&A	5	5	5	6	7	7
EBITDA	191	203	237	277	323	331

(−) Tax	23	24	28	33	39	39
(−) CapEx	6	6	7	8	10	10
(−) ΔWC	13	3	9	10	12	12
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	149	170	193	225	263	270

Terminal Value						4,014
WACC / Discount Rate	9.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	143	149	155	166	177	2,582

Enterprise Value	3,371
Projection Period	789	23.4%
Terminal Value	2,582	76.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	308

Equity Value	3,063
(/) Outstanding Shares	24

Fair Price	$127.72

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
7.2%	$160	$174	$190	$210	$235
8.2%	$134	$143	$153	$166	$181
9.2%	$114	$120	$128	$136	$147
10.2%	$99	$103	$109	$115	$122
11.2%	$87	$90	$94	$99	$104

Current price: $43.94. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$174.56

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

+297.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Mid Bancshares, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -8.8% to 5.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 20, DIO 60). At a 9.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (61% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $174.56 per share, suggesting FMBH is undervalued by 297.3% at the current price of $43.94.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.22%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	102	109	127	148	173	199	223	245	264	278	285
(−) Net Interest	84	89	105	122	143	164	184	202	218	229	235
(+) D&A	5	5	5	6	7	7	9	10	11	12	13
EBITDA	191	203	237	277	323	370	415	457	493	519	532

(−) Tax	23	24	28	33	39	44	50	54	59	62	63
(−) CapEx	6	6	7	8	10	11	13	14	15	16	16
(−) ΔWC	13	3	9	10	12	12	11	10	9	7	7
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	149	170	193	225	263	303	342	378	410	436	446

Terminal Value											6,642
WACC / Discount Rate	9.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	143	149	155	166	177	186	193	195	194	188	2,749

Enterprise Value	4,495
Projection Period	1,746	38.8%
Terminal Value	2,749	61.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	308

Equity Value	4,187
(/) Outstanding Shares	24

Fair Price	$174.56

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
7.2%	$230	$245	$264	$287	$317
8.2%	$189	$199	$211	$225	$242
9.2%	$160	$167	$175	$184	$195
10.2%	$137	$142	$148	$154	$161
11.2%	$119	$123	$127	$132	$137

Current price: $43.94. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$97.01

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

+120.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Mid Bancshares, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -8.8% to 16.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 20, DIO 60). At a 9.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (70% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $97.02 per share, suggesting FMBH is undervalued by 120.8% at the current price of $43.94.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.22%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

8.66x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	102	109	127	148	173	178
(−) Net Interest	84	89	105	122	143	146
(+) D&A	5	5	5	6	7	7
EBITDA	191	203	237	277	323	331

(−) Tax	23	24	28	33	39	—
(−) CapEx	6	6	7	8	10	—
(−) ΔWC	13	3	9	10	12	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	149	170	193	225	263	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						8.7x
Terminal Value						2,869
WACC / Discount Rate	9.22%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	143	149	155	166	177	1,846

Enterprise Value	2,635
Projection Period	789	29.9%
Terminal Value	1,846	70.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	308
Equity Value	2,327
(÷) Outstanding Shares	24M
Fair Price	$97	+120.8%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	4.7x	6.7x	8.7x	10.7x	12.7x
7.2%	$67	$87	$106	$126	$145
8.2%	$64	$83	$101	$120	$139
9.2%	$61	$79	$97	$115	$133
10.2%	$59	$76	$93	$110	$127
11.2%	$56	$73	$89	$105	$121

Current price: $43.94. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$139.52

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

+217.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Mid Bancshares, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -8.8% to 5.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 20, DIO 60). At a 9.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (52% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.7x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $139.54 per share, suggesting FMBH is undervalued by 217.6% at the current price of $43.94.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.22%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

8.66x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	102	109	127	148	173	199	223	245	264	278	285
(−) Net Interest	84	89	105	122	143	164	184	202	218	229	235
(+) D&A	5	5	5	6	7	7	9	10	11	12	13
EBITDA	191	203	237	277	323	370	415	457	493	519	532

(−) Tax	23	24	28	33	39	44	50	54	59	62	—
(−) CapEx	6	6	7	8	10	11	13	14	15	16	—
(−) ΔWC	13	3	9	10	12	12	11	10	9	7	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	149	170	193	225	263	303	342	378	410	436	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											8.7x
Terminal Value											4,611
WACC / Discount Rate	9.22%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	143	149	155	166	177	186	193	195	194	188	1,909

Enterprise Value	3,654
Projection Period	1,746	47.8%
Terminal Value	1,909	52.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	308
Equity Value	3,347
(÷) Outstanding Shares	24M
Fair Price	$140	+217.6%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	4.7x	6.7x	8.7x	10.7x	12.7x
7.2%	$119	$141	$163	$185	$207
8.2%	$111	$131	$151	$171	$191
9.2%	$103	$121	$140	$158	$176
10.2%	$96	$112	$129	$146	$163
11.2%	$89	$104	$120	$135	$150

Current price: $43.94. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$43.41

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

-1.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH) has a fair value of $43.41 based on 9 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

P/E Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
First Mid Bancshares, Inc.FMBH	1,054	11.5x	14.0x
Dime Community Bancshares, Inc.DCOM	1,642	15.7x	24.1x
Amalgamated Financial Corp.AMAL	1,257	12.3x	13.0x
Tompkins Financial CorporationTMP	1,236	7.6x	85.8x
Univest Financial CorporationUVSP	1,075	12.2x	15.8x
FirstSun Capital BancorpFSUN	1,032	10.5x	11.2x
Southside Bancshares, Inc.SBSI	1,001	14.7x	12.5x
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.BHRB	960	8.2x	8.4x
Business First Bancshares, Inc.BFST	905	10.0x	11.3x
Hanmi Financial CorporationHAFC	904	12.1x	13.8x
Industry Median		12.1x	13.0x
(*) Profit after tax		92	75
Equity Value		1,110	972
(/) Outstanding shares		24	24
Fair Price		$46	$41

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$43.41

-1.2%

Fair Value

$32.61

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

-25.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH) has a fair value of $32.61 based on 8 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
First Mid Bancshares, Inc.FMBH	1,054	11.6x	17.8x
Amalgamated Financial Corp.AMAL	1,257	9.3x	14.5x
Tompkins Financial CorporationTMP	1,236	7.8x	20.6x
Univest Financial CorporationUVSP	1,075	7.3x	13.2x
FirstSun Capital BancorpFSUN	1,032	3.1x	5.2x
Southside Bancshares, Inc.SBSI	1,001	16.3x	28.4x
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.BHRB	960	10.0x	14.2x
Business First Bancshares, Inc.BFST	905	8.8x	18.1x
Hanmi Financial CorporationHAFC	904	8.6x	16.0x
Industry Median		8.7x	15.2x
(*) EBITDA		117	77
= Enterprise Value		1,014	1,166
(-) Net Debt		308	308
Equity Value		706	858
(/) Outstanding shares		24	24
Fair Price		$29	$36

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$32.61

-25.8%

Fair Value

$38.74

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

-11.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH) has a fair value of $38.74 based on 8 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
First Mid Bancshares, Inc.FMBH	1,054	2.9x	4.5x
Amalgamated Financial Corp.AMAL	1,257	3.0x	4.6x
Tompkins Financial CorporationTMP	1,236	3.0x	8.0x
Univest Financial CorporationUVSP	1,075	1.7x	3.0x
FirstSun Capital BancorpFSUN	1,032	0.7x	1.2x
Southside Bancshares, Inc.SBSI	1,001	3.2x	5.6x
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.BHRB	960	2.9x	4.2x
Business First Bancshares, Inc.BFST	905	2.0x	4.2x
Hanmi Financial CorporationHAFC	904	2.2x	4.1x
Industry Median		2.6x	4.2x
(*) Revenue		466	305
= Enterprise Value		1,194	1,280
(-) Net Debt		308	308
Equity Value		886	972
(/) Outstanding shares		24	24
Fair Price		$37	$41

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$38.74

-11.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$65.85

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

+49.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 15.0% plus 2.0% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $65.85 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $4.38. The current PEG ratio is 0.67.

PEG Ratio

0.67Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 10.0 ÷ (13.0% + 2.0%) = 0.67

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	13.0%
Dividend Yield	+2.0%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	15.0%
Fair P/E	15.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$4.38
Fair Value	$65.85

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$3.83	—	—
FY2026E	$4.38	+14.3%	5
FY2027E	$4.89	+11.8%	5

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 13.0%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$51.5M	$2.87	—
FY2022	$73.0M	$3.60	+25.4%
FY2023	$68.9M	$3.15	-12.5%
FY2024	$78.9M	$3.30	+4.8%
FY2025	$91.7M	$3.83	+16.1%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 7.5%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$58.96

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

+34.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 9.2% and normalized earnings of $158.8M, the company has a fair value of $58.96 per share. The EPV range is $48.91 – $72.90 based on WACC sensitivity (7.7% – 10.7%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	159	159	159
(/) WACC	10.7%	9.2%	7.7%
Enterprise Value	1,481	1,722	2,057
(-) Net debt	308	308	308
Equity Value	1,173	1,414	1,749
(/) Outstanding shares	24	24	24
Fair Price	$48.91	$58.96	$72.90

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$23.18

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

-47.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 8.0% and projected dividend growth of 8.1%, the fair value is $23.18 per share. The DDM range is $15.53 – $40.07 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.98

Dividend Yield

2.00%

Payout Ratio

25.5%

Dividend Coverage

3.92x

FCF Payout Ratio18.9%

DPS CAGR (4Y)4.4%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.98	25.5%	+4.2%
2024	$0.94	28.4%	+4.7%
2023	$0.89	28.4%	+1.5%
2022	$0.88	24.4%	+7.3%
2021	$0.82	28.6%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.05	8.1%	0.9259	$0.98
2027	$1.14	8.1%	0.8574	$0.98
2028	$1.23	8.1%	0.7939	$0.98
2029	$1.33	8.1%	0.7351	$0.98
2030	$1.44	8.1%	0.6807	$0.98
Terminal Value	$1.48 DPS	2.5%		$18.29

PV of Projected Dividends$4.89

PV of Terminal Value$18.29

Fair Value per Share$23.18

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	6.1%	7.1%	8.1%	9.1%	10.1%
6.0%	$34	$35	$37	$38	$40
7.0%	$26	$27	$28	$30	$31
8.0%	$21	$22	$23	$24	$25
9.0%	$18	$19	$20	$20	$21
10.0%	$16	$16	$17	$18	$18

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 20:28

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$86.53 – $234.96	$127.72	+190.7%
Growth Exit 10Y	$119.46 – $316.56	$174.56	+297.3%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$56.38 – $145.09	$97.02	+120.8%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$89.10 – $207.49	$139.54	+217.6%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$38.09 – $47.19	$43.41	-1.2%
EV/EBITDA	$25.43 – $35.79	$32.61	-25.8%
EV/Revenue	$26.82 – $46.34	$38.74	-11.8%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$65.85 – $65.85	$65.85	+49.9%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$48.91 – $72.90	$58.96	+34.2%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$15.53 – $40.07	$23.18	-47.2%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$127.72

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

+190.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.22%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	102	109	127	148	173	178
(−) Net Interest	84	89	105	122	143	146
(+) D&A	5	5	5	6	7	7
EBITDA	191	203	237	277	323	331

(−) Tax	23	24	28	33	39	39
(−) CapEx	6	6	7	8	10	10
(−) ΔWC	13	3	9	10	12	12
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	149	170	193	225	263	270

Terminal Value						4,014
WACC / Discount Rate	9.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	143	149	155	166	177	2,582

Enterprise Value	3,371
Projection Period	789	23.4%
Terminal Value	2,582	76.6%

(−) Current Net Debt	308

Equity Value	3,063
(/) Outstanding Shares	24

Fair Price	$127.72

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
7.2%	$160	$174	$190	$210	$235
8.2%	$134	$143	$153	$166	$181
9.2%	$114	$120	$128	$136	$147
10.2%	$99	$103	$109	$115	$122
11.2%	$87	$90	$94	$99	$104

Current price: $43.94. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$174.56

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

+297.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.22%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	102	109	127	148	173	199	223	245	264	278	285
(−) Net Interest	84	89	105	122	143	164	184	202	218	229	235
(+) D&A	5	5	5	6	7	7	9	10	11	12	13
EBITDA	191	203	237	277	323	370	415	457	493	519	532

(−) Tax	23	24	28	33	39	44	50	54	59	62	63
(−) CapEx	6	6	7	8	10	11	13	14	15	16	16
(−) ΔWC	13	3	9	10	12	12	11	10	9	7	7
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	149	170	193	225	263	303	342	378	410	436	446

Terminal Value											6,642
WACC / Discount Rate	9.2%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	143	149	155	166	177	186	193	195	194	188	2,749

Enterprise Value	4,495
Projection Period	1,746	38.8%
Terminal Value	2,749	61.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	308

Equity Value	4,187
(/) Outstanding Shares	24

Fair Price	$174.56

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
7.2%	$230	$245	$264	$287	$317
8.2%	$189	$199	$211	$225	$242
9.2%	$160	$167	$175	$184	$195
10.2%	$137	$142	$148	$154	$161
11.2%	$119	$123	$127	$132	$137

Current price: $43.94. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$97.01

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

+120.8%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Mid Bancshares, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -8.8% to 16.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 20, DIO 60). At a 9.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (70% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $97.02 per share, suggesting FMBH is undervalued by 120.8% at the current price of $43.94.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.22%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

8.66x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	102	109	127	148	173	178
(−) Net Interest	84	89	105	122	143	146
(+) D&A	5	5	5	6	7	7
EBITDA	191	203	237	277	323	331

(−) Tax	23	24	28	33	39	—
(−) CapEx	6	6	7	8	10	—
(−) ΔWC	13	3	9	10	12	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	149	170	193	225	263	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						8.7x
Terminal Value						2,869
WACC / Discount Rate	9.22%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	143	149	155	166	177	1,846

Enterprise Value	2,635
Projection Period	789	29.9%
Terminal Value	1,846	70.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	308
Equity Value	2,327
(÷) Outstanding Shares	24M
Fair Price	$97	+120.8%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	4.7x	6.7x	8.7x	10.7x	12.7x
7.2%	$67	$87	$106	$126	$145
8.2%	$64	$83	$101	$120	$139
9.2%	$61	$79	$97	$115	$133
10.2%	$59	$76	$93	$110	$127
11.2%	$56	$73	$89	$105	$121

Current price: $43.94. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$139.52

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

+217.6%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Mid Bancshares, Inc.'s cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -8.8% to 5.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 32, DPO 20, DIO 60). At a 9.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (52% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.7x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $139.54 per share, suggesting FMBH is undervalued by 217.6% at the current price of $43.94.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

9.22%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

8.66x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	102	109	127	148	173	199	223	245	264	278	285
(−) Net Interest	84	89	105	122	143	164	184	202	218	229	235
(+) D&A	5	5	5	6	7	7	9	10	11	12	13
EBITDA	191	203	237	277	323	370	415	457	493	519	532

(−) Tax	23	24	28	33	39	44	50	54	59	62	—
(−) CapEx	6	6	7	8	10	11	13	14	15	16	—
(−) ΔWC	13	3	9	10	12	12	11	10	9	7	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	149	170	193	225	263	303	342	378	410	436	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											8.7x
Terminal Value											4,611
WACC / Discount Rate	9.22%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	143	149	155	166	177	186	193	195	194	188	1,909

Enterprise Value	3,654
Projection Period	1,746	47.8%
Terminal Value	1,909	52.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	308
Equity Value	3,347
(÷) Outstanding Shares	24M
Fair Price	$140	+217.6%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	4.7x	6.7x	8.7x	10.7x	12.7x
7.2%	$119	$141	$163	$185	$207
8.2%	$111	$131	$151	$171	$191
9.2%	$103	$121	$140	$158	$176
10.2%	$96	$112	$129	$146	$163
11.2%	$89	$104	$120	$135	$150

Current price: $43.94. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$43.41

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

-1.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

P/E Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
First Mid Bancshares, Inc.FMBH	1,054	11.5x	14.0x
Dime Community Bancshares, Inc.DCOM	1,642	15.7x	24.1x
Amalgamated Financial Corp.AMAL	1,257	12.3x	13.0x
Tompkins Financial CorporationTMP	1,236	7.6x	85.8x
Univest Financial CorporationUVSP	1,075	12.2x	15.8x
FirstSun Capital BancorpFSUN	1,032	10.5x	11.2x
Southside Bancshares, Inc.SBSI	1,001	14.7x	12.5x
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.BHRB	960	8.2x	8.4x
Business First Bancshares, Inc.BFST	905	10.0x	11.3x
Hanmi Financial CorporationHAFC	904	12.1x	13.8x
Industry Median		12.1x	13.0x
(*) Profit after tax		92	75
Equity Value		1,110	972
(/) Outstanding shares		24	24
Fair Price		$46	$41

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$43.41

-1.2%

Fair Value

$32.61

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

-25.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH) has a fair value of $32.61 based on 8 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
First Mid Bancshares, Inc.FMBH	1,054	11.6x	17.8x
Amalgamated Financial Corp.AMAL	1,257	9.3x	14.5x
Tompkins Financial CorporationTMP	1,236	7.8x	20.6x
Univest Financial CorporationUVSP	1,075	7.3x	13.2x
FirstSun Capital BancorpFSUN	1,032	3.1x	5.2x
Southside Bancshares, Inc.SBSI	1,001	16.3x	28.4x
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.BHRB	960	10.0x	14.2x
Business First Bancshares, Inc.BFST	905	8.8x	18.1x
Hanmi Financial CorporationHAFC	904	8.6x	16.0x
Industry Median		8.7x	15.2x
(*) EBITDA		117	77
= Enterprise Value		1,014	1,166
(-) Net Debt		308	308
Equity Value		706	858
(/) Outstanding shares		24	24
Fair Price		$29	$36

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$32.61

-25.8%

Fair Value

$38.74

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

-11.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), First Mid Bancshares, Inc. (FMBH) has a fair value of $38.74 based on 8 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
First Mid Bancshares, Inc.FMBH	1,054	2.9x	4.5x
Amalgamated Financial Corp.AMAL	1,257	3.0x	4.6x
Tompkins Financial CorporationTMP	1,236	3.0x	8.0x
Univest Financial CorporationUVSP	1,075	1.7x	3.0x
FirstSun Capital BancorpFSUN	1,032	0.7x	1.2x
Southside Bancshares, Inc.SBSI	1,001	3.2x	5.6x
Burke & Herbert Financial Services Corp.BHRB	960	2.9x	4.2x
Business First Bancshares, Inc.BFST	905	2.0x	4.2x
Hanmi Financial CorporationHAFC	904	2.2x	4.1x
Industry Median		2.6x	4.2x
(*) Revenue		466	305
= Enterprise Value		1,194	1,280
(-) Net Debt		308	308
Equity Value		886	972
(/) Outstanding shares		24	24
Fair Price		$37	$41

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$38.74

-11.8%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$65.85

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

+49.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

PEG Ratio

0.67Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 10.0 ÷ (13.0% + 2.0%) = 0.67

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: StalwartPEG highly applicable

PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	13.0%
Dividend Yield	+2.0%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	15.0%
Fair P/E	15.0x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$4.38
Fair Value	$65.85

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$3.83	—	—
FY2026E	$4.38	+14.3%	5
FY2027E	$4.89	+11.8%	5

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 13.0%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$51.5M	$2.87	—
FY2022	$73.0M	$3.60	+25.4%
FY2023	$68.9M	$3.15	-12.5%
FY2024	$78.9M	$3.30	+4.8%
FY2025	$91.7M	$3.83	+16.1%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 7.5%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$58.96

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

+34.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	159	159	159
(/) WACC	10.7%	9.2%	7.7%
Enterprise Value	1,481	1,722	2,057
(-) Net debt	308	308	308
Equity Value	1,173	1,414	1,749
(/) Outstanding shares	24	24	24
Fair Price	$48.91	$58.96	$72.90

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$23.18

Market Price

$43.94

Upside / Downside

-47.2%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.98

Dividend Yield

2.00%

Payout Ratio

25.5%

Dividend Coverage

3.92x

FCF Payout Ratio18.9%

DPS CAGR (4Y)4.4%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.98	25.5%	+4.2%
2024	$0.94	28.4%	+4.7%
2023	$0.89	28.4%	+1.5%
2022	$0.88	24.4%	+7.3%
2021	$0.82	28.6%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$1.05	8.1%	0.9259	$0.98
2027	$1.14	8.1%	0.8574	$0.98
2028	$1.23	8.1%	0.7939	$0.98
2029	$1.33	8.1%	0.7351	$0.98
2030	$1.44	8.1%	0.6807	$0.98
Terminal Value	$1.48 DPS	2.5%		$18.29

PV of Projected Dividends$4.89

PV of Terminal Value$18.29

Fair Value per Share$23.18

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	6.1%	7.1%	8.1%	9.1%	10.1%
6.0%	$34	$35	$37	$38	$40
7.0%	$26	$27	$28	$30	$31
8.0%	$21	$22	$23	$24	$25
9.0%	$18	$19	$20	$20	$21
10.0%	$16	$16	$17	$18	$18