Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Comfort Systems USA, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 20.3% to 30.0% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 110, DPO 38, DIO 4). At a 8.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (92% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 18.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $825.22 per share, suggesting FIX is overvalued by 39.8% at the current price of $1370.29.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 970 | 1,100 | 1,175 | 1,528 | 1,986 | 2,036 |
| (−) Net Interest | 20 | 23 | 24 | 31 | 41 | 42 |
| (+) D&A | 86 | 112 | 138 | 156 | 182 | 186 |
| EBITDA | 1,076 | 1,235 | 1,337 | 1,715 | 2,209 | 2,264 |
| (−) Tax | 154 | 175 | 187 | 243 | 316 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 153 | 174 | 186 | 241 | 314 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 190 | 333 | 193 | 903 | 1,174 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 578 | 553 | 771 | 327 | 405 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 18.1x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 40,958 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.82% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 554 | 487 | 624 | 243 | 277 | 26,836 |
| Enterprise Value | 29,020 | |||||
| Projection Period | 2,185 | 7.5% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 26,836 | 92.5% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (196) | |||||
| Equity Value | 29,216 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 35M | |||||
| Fair Price | $825 | -39.8% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 14.1x | 16.1x | 18.1x | 20.1x | 22.1x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $718 | $809 | $901 | $993 | $1085 |
| 7.8% | $687 | $775 | $862 | $950 | $1038 |
| 8.8% | $658 | $741 | $825 | $909 | $993 |
| 9.8% | $630 | $710 | $790 | $870 | $950 |
| 10.8% | $604 | $680 | $757 | $833 | $910 |
Current price: $1370.29. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.