First Commonwealth Financial Corporation

FCF

Financial ServicesBanks - RegionalNYSE

$18.56

Market Cap: $1.90B

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 19:58

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$34.97 – $106.46	$52.95	+185.3%
Growth Exit 10Y	$47.66 – $142.07	$71.58	+285.7%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$33.11 – $69.32	$49.72	+167.9%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$45.09 – $95.81	$66.78	+259.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$16.76 – $22.56	$23.24	+25.2%
EV/EBITDA	$16.71 – $23.54	$19.39	+4.5%
EV/Revenue	$14.71 – $24.34	$20.48	+10.4%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$31.87 – $31.87	$31.87	+71.7%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$26.21 – $38.84	$31.41	+69.2%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$8.87 – $24.00	$13.44	-27.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$52.95

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+185.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Commonwealth Financial Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -23.7% to 16.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 8.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (79% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 6 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $52.95 per share, suggesting FCF is undervalued by 185.3% at the current price of $18.56.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.52%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	200	212	247	286	333	341
(−) Net Interest	101	108	125	145	169	173
(+) D&A	15	16	17	16	17	18
EBITDA	316	336	389	448	519	532

(−) Tax	40	43	50	58	67	69
(−) CapEx	15	16	18	21	25	25
(−) ΔWC	78	5	13	16	18	19
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	183	272	307	353	409	419

Terminal Value						6,958
WACC / Discount Rate	8.5%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	175	241	250	265	283	4,622

Enterprise Value	5,837
Projection Period	1,215	20.8%
Terminal Value	4,622	79.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	349

Equity Value	5,488
(/) Outstanding Shares	104

Fair Price	$52.95

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.5%	$68	$74	$82	$93	$106
7.5%	$55	$60	$65	$71	$79
8.5%	$47	$50	$53	$57	$62
9.5%	$40	$42	$45	$47	$51
10.5%	$35	$37	$38	$40	$43

Current price: $18.56. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$71.58

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+285.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Commonwealth Financial Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -23.7% to 5.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 8.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (65% of enterprise value) is derived from the Gordon Growth Model on Year 11 FCFF at a 2.5% perpetual rate. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $71.58 per share, suggesting FCF is undervalued by 285.7% at the current price of $18.56.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.52%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	200	212	247	286	333	379	424	465	499	525	538
(−) Net Interest	101	108	125	145	169	192	215	236	253	266	273
(+) D&A	15	16	17	16	17	19	21	25	28	31	32
EBITDA	316	336	389	448	519	591	661	725	780	822	843

(−) Tax	40	43	50	58	67	77	86	94	101	106	109
(−) CapEx	15	16	18	21	25	28	31	34	37	39	40
(−) ΔWC	78	5	13	16	18	18	18	16	13	10	10
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	183	272	307	353	409	468	526	581	629	667	684

Terminal Value											11,354
WACC / Discount Rate	8.5%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	175	241	250	265	283	298	309	315	314	307	5,011

Enterprise Value	7,768
Projection Period	2,758	35.5%
Terminal Value	5,011	64.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	349

Equity Value	7,419
(/) Outstanding Shares	104

Fair Price	$71.58

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.5%	$96	$104	$113	$126	$142
7.5%	$78	$82	$88	$95	$104
8.5%	$65	$68	$72	$76	$81
9.5%	$55	$57	$60	$63	$66
10.5%	$48	$49	$51	$53	$55

Current price: $18.56. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$49.73

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+168.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Commonwealth Financial Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -23.7% to 16.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 8.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $49.72 per share, suggesting FCF is undervalued by 167.9% at the current price of $18.56.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.52%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

12.14x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	200	212	247	286	333	341
(−) Net Interest	101	108	125	145	169	173
(+) D&A	15	16	17	16	17	18
EBITDA	316	336	389	448	519	532

(−) Tax	40	43	50	58	67	—
(−) CapEx	15	16	18	21	25	—
(−) ΔWC	78	5	13	16	18	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	183	272	307	353	409	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						12.1x
Terminal Value						6,456
WACC / Discount Rate	8.52%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	175	241	250	265	283	4,289

Enterprise Value	5,504
Projection Period	1,215	22.1%
Terminal Value	4,289	77.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	349
Equity Value	5,155
(÷) Outstanding Shares	104M
Fair Price	$50	+168.0%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	8.1x	10.1x	12.1x	14.1x	16.1x
6.5%	$39	$47	$54	$62	$69
7.5%	$38	$45	$52	$59	$66
8.5%	$36	$43	$50	$57	$63
9.5%	$35	$41	$48	$54	$61
10.5%	$33	$39	$46	$52	$58

Current price: $18.56. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$66.79

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+259.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Commonwealth Financial Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -23.7% to 5.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 8.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (62% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.1x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $66.78 per share, suggesting FCF is undervalued by 259.8% at the current price of $18.56.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.52%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

12.14x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	200	212	247	286	333	379	424	465	499	525	538
(−) Net Interest	101	108	125	145	169	192	215	236	253	266	273
(+) D&A	15	16	17	16	17	19	21	25	28	31	32
EBITDA	316	336	389	448	519	591	661	725	780	822	843

(−) Tax	40	43	50	58	67	77	86	94	101	106	—
(−) CapEx	15	16	18	21	25	28	31	34	37	39	—
(−) ΔWC	78	5	13	16	18	18	18	16	13	10	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	183	272	307	353	409	468	526	581	629	667	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											12.1x
Terminal Value											10,229
WACC / Discount Rate	8.52%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	175	241	250	265	283	298	309	315	314	307	4,514

Enterprise Value	7,272
Projection Period	2,758	37.9%
Terminal Value	4,514	62.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	349
Equity Value	6,923
(÷) Outstanding Shares	104M
Fair Price	$67	+259.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	8.1x	10.1x	12.1x	14.1x	16.1x
6.5%	$61	$70	$79	$87	$96
7.5%	$57	$65	$72	$80	$88
8.5%	$52	$60	$67	$74	$81
9.5%	$49	$55	$62	$68	$75
10.5%	$45	$51	$57	$63	$69

Current price: $18.56. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$23.24

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+25.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median P/E Multiples multiple (trailing + forward), First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) has a fair value of $23.24 based on 10 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

P/E Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
First Commonwealth Financial CorporationFCF	1,924	12.6x	11.5x
First Merchants CorporationFRME	2,547	10.4x	11.6x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,312	15.0x	20.8x
Northwest Bancshares, Inc.NWBI	2,032	15.1x	17.3x
Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S. A.BLX	2,003	8.8x	8.5x
Stellar Bancorp, Inc.STEL	1,911	18.9x	17.6x
1st Source CorporationSRCE	1,773	11.4x	14.3x
City Holding CompanyCHCO	1,736	13.8x	15.8x
S&T Bancorp, Inc.STBA	1,632	12.8x	12.5x
Lakeland Financial CorporationLKFN	1,533	15.3x	15.7x
Coastal Financial CorporationCCB	1,110	24.0x	25.8x
Industry Median		14.4x	15.7x
(*) Profit after tax		152	167
Equity Value		2,193	2,625
(/) Outstanding shares		104	104
Fair Price		$21	$25

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$23.24

+25.2%

Fair Value

$19.39

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+4.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple (trailing + forward), First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) has a fair value of $19.39 based on 10 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
First Commonwealth Financial CorporationFCF	1,924	11.1x	17.2x
First Merchants CorporationFRME	2,547	12.0x	20.0x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,312	9.6x	16.0x
Northwest Bancshares, Inc.NWBI	2,032	13.6x	24.3x
Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S. A.BLX	2,003	18.8x	17.1x
Stellar Bancorp, Inc.STEL	1,911	12.0x	16.5x
1st Source CorporationSRCE	1,773	9.6x	15.6x
City Holding CompanyCHCO	1,736	12.3x	16.7x
S&T Bancorp, Inc.STBA	1,632	10.2x	15.0x
Lakeland Financial CorporationLKFN	1,533	12.7x	22.1x
Coastal Financial CorporationCCB	1,110	18.5x	45.1x
Industry Median		12.1x	16.9x
(*) EBITDA		205	132
= Enterprise Value		2,484	2,233
(-) Net Debt		349	349
Equity Value		2,135	1,883
(/) Outstanding shares		104	104
Fair Price		$21	$18

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$19.39

+4.5%

Fair Value

$20.48

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+10.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) has a fair value of $20.48 based on 10 comparable companies in the Banks - Regional industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
First Commonwealth Financial CorporationFCF	1,924	3.1x	4.8x
First Merchants CorporationFRME	2,547	3.3x	5.5x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,312	3.2x	5.4x
Northwest Bancshares, Inc.NWBI	2,032	2.6x	4.6x
Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S. A.BLX	2,003	12.5x	11.4x
Stellar Bancorp, Inc.STEL	1,911	2.6x	3.5x
1st Source CorporationSRCE	1,773	3.4x	5.6x
City Holding CompanyCHCO	1,736	5.4x	7.3x
S&T Bancorp, Inc.STBA	1,632	3.1x	4.6x
Lakeland Financial CorporationLKFN	1,533	3.9x	6.8x
Coastal Financial CorporationCCB	1,110	1.7x	4.2x
Industry Median		3.3x	5.5x
(*) Revenue		729	470
= Enterprise Value		2,382	2,562
(-) Net Debt		349	349
Equity Value		2,033	2,213
(/) Outstanding shares		104	104
Fair Price		$20	$21

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$20.48

+10.4%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$31.87

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+71.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 18.5% plus 2.9% dividend yield, the company has a fair value of $31.87 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.72. The current PEG ratio is 0.58.

PEG Ratio

0.58Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 10.8 ÷ (15.6% + 2.9%) = 0.58

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG highly applicable

PEG is most informative for high-growth companies — the PEG sweet spot.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	15.6%
Dividend Yield	+2.9%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	18.5%
Fair P/E	18.5x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$1.72
Fair Value	$31.87

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$1.47	—	—
FY2026E	$1.72	+17.2%	4
FY2027E	$1.96	+13.9%	4

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 15.6%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$138.3M	$1.44	—
FY2022	$128.2M	$1.37	-4.9%
FY2023	$157.1M	$1.54	+12.4%
FY2024	$142.6M	$1.39	-9.7%
FY2025	$152.3M	$1.47	+5.8%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 0.5%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$31.41

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+69.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the Earnings Power Value framework with a WACC of 8.5% and normalized earnings of $307.3M, the company has a fair value of $31.41 per share. The EPV range is $26.21 – $38.84 based on WACC sensitivity (7.0% – 10.0%).

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	307	307	307
(/) WACC	10.0%	8.5%	7.0%
Enterprise Value	3,065	3,605	4,374
(-) Net debt	349	349	349
Equity Value	2,716	3,256	4,025
(/) Outstanding shares	104	104	104
Fair Price	$26.21	$31.41	$38.84

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$13.44

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

-27.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model with a Cost of Equity of 7.7% and projected dividend growth of 8.1%, the fair value is $13.44 per share. The DDM range is $8.87 – $24.00 based on sensitivity analysis across Cost of Equity and growth rate assumptions.

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.54

Dividend Yield

2.93%

Payout Ratio

36.4%

Dividend Coverage

2.74x

FCF Payout Ratio32.4%

DPS CAGR (4Y)4.1%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.54	36.4%	+4.0%
2024	$0.51	36.9%	+3.1%
2023	$0.50	32.4%	+5.1%
2022	$0.47	34.8%	+4.3%
2021	$0.46	31.5%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.58	8.1%	0.9284	$0.54
2027	$0.63	8.1%	0.8620	$0.54
2028	$0.68	8.1%	0.8003	$0.54
2029	$0.73	8.1%	0.7430	$0.54
2030	$0.79	8.1%	0.6898	$0.55
Terminal Value	$0.81 DPS	2.5%		$10.73

PV of Projected Dividends$2.71

PV of Terminal Value$10.73

Fair Value per Share$13.44

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	6.1%	7.1%	8.1%	9.1%	10.1%
5.7%	$20	$21	$22	$23	$24
6.7%	$15	$16	$17	$17	$18
7.7%	$12	$13	$13	$14	$15
8.7%	$10	$11	$11	$12	$12
9.7%	$9	$9	$10	$10	$10

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

First Commonwealth Financial Corporation (FCF) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 19:58

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Growth Exit 5Y	$34.97 – $106.46	$52.95	+185.3%
Growth Exit 10Y	$47.66 – $142.07	$71.58	+285.7%
EBITDA Exit 5Y	$33.11 – $69.32	$49.72	+167.9%
EBITDA Exit 10Y	$45.09 – $95.81	$66.78	+259.8%
▸ Trading Multiples
P/E	$16.76 – $22.56	$23.24	+25.2%
EV/EBITDA	$16.71 – $23.54	$19.39	+4.5%
EV/Revenue	$14.71 – $24.34	$20.48	+10.4%
▸ PEG
PEG Fair Value	$31.87 – $31.87	$31.87	+71.7%
▸ Earnings Power Value
Earnings Power Value	$26.21 – $38.84	$31.41	+69.2%
▸ Dividend Discount
Dividend Discount	$8.87 – $24.00	$13.44	-27.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Fair Value

$52.95

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+185.3%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.52%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	200	212	247	286	333	341
(−) Net Interest	101	108	125	145	169	173
(+) D&A	15	16	17	16	17	18
EBITDA	316	336	389	448	519	532

(−) Tax	40	43	50	58	67	69
(−) CapEx	15	16	18	21	25	25
(−) ΔWC	78	5	13	16	18	19
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	183	272	307	353	409	419

Terminal Value						6,958
WACC / Discount Rate	8.5%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	175	241	250	265	283	4,622

Enterprise Value	5,837
Projection Period	1,215	20.8%
Terminal Value	4,622	79.2%

(−) Current Net Debt	349

Equity Value	5,488
(/) Outstanding Shares	104

Fair Price	$52.95

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.5%	$68	$74	$82	$93	$106
7.5%	$55	$60	$65	$71	$79
8.5%	$47	$50	$53	$57	$62
9.5%	$40	$42	$45	$47	$51
10.5%	$35	$37	$38	$40	$43

Current price: $18.56. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$71.58

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+285.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.52%

3% – 20%

Terminal Growth

2.50%

0% – 6%

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	200	212	247	286	333	379	424	465	499	525	538
(−) Net Interest	101	108	125	145	169	192	215	236	253	266	273
(+) D&A	15	16	17	16	17	19	21	25	28	31	32
EBITDA	316	336	389	448	519	591	661	725	780	822	843

(−) Tax	40	43	50	58	67	77	86	94	101	106	109
(−) CapEx	15	16	18	21	25	28	31	34	37	39	40
(−) ΔWC	78	5	13	16	18	18	18	16	13	10	10
Free Cash Flow (FCFF)	183	272	307	353	409	468	526	581	629	667	684

Terminal Value											11,354
WACC / Discount Rate	8.5%
Long-term Growth Rate	2.5%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	175	241	250	265	283	298	309	315	314	307	5,011

Enterprise Value	7,768
Projection Period	2,758	35.5%
Terminal Value	5,011	64.5%

(−) Current Net Debt	349

Equity Value	7,419
(/) Outstanding Shares	104

Fair Price	$71.58

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ Terminal Growth Rate	1.5%	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%	3.5%
6.5%	$96	$104	$113	$126	$142
7.5%	$78	$82	$88	$95	$104
8.5%	$65	$68	$72	$76	$81
9.5%	$55	$57	$60	$63	$66
10.5%	$48	$49	$51	$53	$55

Current price: $18.56. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Fair Value

$49.73

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+168.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Commonwealth Financial Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -23.7% to 16.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 8.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (78% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $49.72 per share, suggesting FCF is undervalued by 167.9% at the current price of $18.56.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.52%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

12.14x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	200	212	247	286	333	341
(−) Net Interest	101	108	125	145	169	173
(+) D&A	15	16	17	16	17	18
EBITDA	316	336	389	448	519	532

(−) Tax	40	43	50	58	67	—
(−) CapEx	15	16	18	21	25	—
(−) ΔWC	78	5	13	16	18	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	183	272	307	353	409	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple						12.1x
Terminal Value						6,456
WACC / Discount Rate	8.52%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5
Present Value of FCF	175	241	250	265	283	4,289

Enterprise Value	5,504
Projection Period	1,215	22.1%
Terminal Value	4,289	77.9%

(−) Current Net Debt	349
Equity Value	5,155
(÷) Outstanding Shares	104M
Fair Price	$50	+168.0%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	8.1x	10.1x	12.1x	14.1x	16.1x
6.5%	$39	$47	$54	$62	$69
7.5%	$38	$45	$52	$59	$66
8.5%	$36	$43	$50	$57	$63
9.5%	$35	$41	$48	$54	$61
10.5%	$33	$39	$46	$52	$58

Current price: $18.56. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Fair Value

$66.79

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+259.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project First Commonwealth Financial Corporation's cash flows over 10 years with analyst estimates for the first 3–5 years, fading toward long-term GDP growth for the remaining years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -23.7% to 5.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 45, DPO 30, DIO 60). At a 8.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (62% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.1x to Year 11 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $66.78 per share, suggesting FCF is undervalued by 259.8% at the current price of $18.56.

FCFF Present Value Calculation

WACC

8.52%

3% – 20%

EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple

12.14x

1x – 40x

Forecast Period

5 Yrs

+ Terminal Year

Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.

Currency: USD Millions

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	Terminal
Profit Before Tax	200	212	247	286	333	379	424	465	499	525	538
(−) Net Interest	101	108	125	145	169	192	215	236	253	266	273
(+) D&A	15	16	17	16	17	19	21	25	28	31	32
EBITDA	316	336	389	448	519	591	661	725	780	822	843

(−) Tax	40	43	50	58	67	77	86	94	101	106	—
(−) CapEx	15	16	18	21	25	28	31	34	37	39	—
(−) ΔWC	78	5	13	16	18	18	18	16	13	10	—
Free Cash Flow (FCF)	183	272	307	353	409	468	526	581	629	667	—

Peers' EBITDA Multiple											12.1x
Terminal Value											10,229
WACC / Discount Rate	8.52%

Timing of FCF (mid year)	0.5	1.5	2.5	3.5	4.5	5.5	6.5	7.5	8.5	9.5	5
Present Value of FCF	175	241	250	265	283	298	309	315	314	307	4,514

Enterprise Value	7,272
Projection Period	2,758	37.9%
Terminal Value	4,514	62.1%

(−) Current Net Debt	349
Equity Value	6,923
(÷) Outstanding Shares	104M
Fair Price	$67	+259.9%

Sensitivity Analysis

WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple	8.1x	10.1x	12.1x	14.1x	16.1x
6.5%	$61	$70	$79	$87	$96
7.5%	$57	$65	$72	$80	$88
8.5%	$52	$60	$67	$74	$81
9.5%	$49	$55	$62	$68	$75
10.5%	$45	$51	$57	$63	$69

Current price: $18.56. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Based on default parameters

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$23.24

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+25.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

P/E Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E
First Commonwealth Financial CorporationFCF	1,924	12.6x	11.5x
First Merchants CorporationFRME	2,547	10.4x	11.6x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,312	15.0x	20.8x
Northwest Bancshares, Inc.NWBI	2,032	15.1x	17.3x
Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S. A.BLX	2,003	8.8x	8.5x
Stellar Bancorp, Inc.STEL	1,911	18.9x	17.6x
1st Source CorporationSRCE	1,773	11.4x	14.3x
City Holding CompanyCHCO	1,736	13.8x	15.8x
S&T Bancorp, Inc.STBA	1,632	12.8x	12.5x
Lakeland Financial CorporationLKFN	1,533	15.3x	15.7x
Coastal Financial CorporationCCB	1,110	24.0x	25.8x
Industry Median		14.4x	15.7x
(*) Profit after tax		152	167
Equity Value		2,193	2,625
(/) Outstanding shares		104	104
Fair Price		$21	$25

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$23.24

+25.2%

Fair Value

$19.39

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+4.5%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/EBITDA Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/EBITDA	Forward EV/EBITDA
First Commonwealth Financial CorporationFCF	1,924	11.1x	17.2x
First Merchants CorporationFRME	2,547	12.0x	20.0x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,312	9.6x	16.0x
Northwest Bancshares, Inc.NWBI	2,032	13.6x	24.3x
Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S. A.BLX	2,003	18.8x	17.1x
Stellar Bancorp, Inc.STEL	1,911	12.0x	16.5x
1st Source CorporationSRCE	1,773	9.6x	15.6x
City Holding CompanyCHCO	1,736	12.3x	16.7x
S&T Bancorp, Inc.STBA	1,632	10.2x	15.0x
Lakeland Financial CorporationLKFN	1,533	12.7x	22.1x
Coastal Financial CorporationCCB	1,110	18.5x	45.1x
Industry Median		12.1x	16.9x
(*) EBITDA		205	132
= Enterprise Value		2,484	2,233
(-) Net Debt		349	349
Equity Value		2,135	1,883
(/) Outstanding shares		104	104
Fair Price		$21	$18

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$19.39

+4.5%

Fair Value

$20.48

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+10.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

EV/Revenue Valuation — Banks - Regional

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
First Commonwealth Financial CorporationFCF	1,924	3.1x	4.8x
First Merchants CorporationFRME	2,547	3.3x	5.5x
Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.NIC	2,312	3.2x	5.4x
Northwest Bancshares, Inc.NWBI	2,032	2.6x	4.6x
Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior, S. A.BLX	2,003	12.5x	11.4x
Stellar Bancorp, Inc.STEL	1,911	2.6x	3.5x
1st Source CorporationSRCE	1,773	3.4x	5.6x
City Holding CompanyCHCO	1,736	5.4x	7.3x
S&T Bancorp, Inc.STBA	1,632	3.1x	4.6x
Lakeland Financial CorporationLKFN	1,533	3.9x	6.8x
Coastal Financial CorporationCCB	1,110	1.7x	4.2x
Industry Median		3.3x	5.5x
(*) Revenue		729	470
= Enterprise Value		2,382	2,562
(-) Net Debt		349	349
Equity Value		2,033	2,213
(/) Outstanding shares		104	104
Fair Price		$20	$21

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$20.48

+10.4%

PEG Fair Value

Fair Value

$31.87

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+71.7%

Verdict

Undervalued

PEG Ratio

0.58Deep Value

01.02.03.0+

PEG = P/E ÷ (Growth + Yield) = 10.8 ÷ (15.6% + 2.9%) = 0.58

PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.

Growth Category: Fast GrowerPEG highly applicable

PEG is most informative for high-growth companies — the PEG sweet spot.

Fair Value Calculation

EPS Growth RateForward	15.6%
Dividend Yield	+2.9%
Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)	18.5%
Fair P/E	18.5x
NTM EPS (FY2026)	$1.72
Fair Value	$31.87

Growth Analysis

Forward GrowthActive

Period	EPS Est.	Growth	Analysts
FY2025 (actual)	$1.47	—	—
FY2026E	$1.72	+17.2%	4
FY2027E	$1.96	+13.9%	4

2Y Forward EPS CAGR: 15.6%

Historical Growth

Year	Net Income	EPS	YoY
FY2021	$138.3M	$1.44	—
FY2022	$128.2M	$1.37	-4.9%
FY2023	$157.1M	$1.54	+12.4%
FY2024	$142.6M	$1.39	-9.7%
FY2025	$152.3M	$1.47	+5.8%

4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 0.5%

Earnings Power Value

Fair Value

$31.41

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

+69.2%

Verdict

Undervalued

Currency: USD Millions

	Low	Selected	High
Normalized Earnings	307	307	307
(/) WACC	10.0%	8.5%	7.0%
Enterprise Value	3,065	3,605	4,374
(-) Net debt	349	349	349
Equity Value	2,716	3,256	4,025
(/) Outstanding shares	104	104	104
Fair Price	$26.21	$31.41	$38.84

Dividend Discount Model

Fair Value

$13.44

Market Price

$18.56

Upside / Downside

-27.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Dividend Profile

Current DPS

$0.54

Dividend Yield

2.93%

Payout Ratio

36.4%

Dividend Coverage

2.74x

FCF Payout Ratio32.4%

DPS CAGR (4Y)4.1%

Historical Dividends Per Share

Year	DPS	Payout Ratio	YoY Growth
2025	$0.54	36.4%	+4.0%
2024	$0.51	36.9%	+3.1%
2023	$0.50	32.4%	+5.1%
2022	$0.47	34.8%	+4.3%
2021	$0.46	31.5%	—

Dividend Projections (5-Year)

Year	Projected DPS	Growth	Discount Factor	Present Value
2026	$0.58	8.1%	0.9284	$0.54
2027	$0.63	8.1%	0.8620	$0.54
2028	$0.68	8.1%	0.8003	$0.54
2029	$0.73	8.1%	0.7430	$0.54
2030	$0.79	8.1%	0.6898	$0.55
Terminal Value	$0.81 DPS	2.5%		$10.73

PV of Projected Dividends$2.71

PV of Terminal Value$10.73

Fair Value per Share$13.44

Sensitivity Analysis

Fair value under different Cost of Equity (rows) and DPS Growth Rate (columns) assumptions.

Ke \ Growth	6.1%	7.1%	8.1%	9.1%	10.1%
5.7%	$20	$21	$22	$23	$24
6.7%	$15	$16	$17	$17	$18
7.7%	$12	$13	$13	$14	$15
8.7%	$10	$11	$11	$12	$12
9.7%	$9	$9	$10	$10	$10