Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Expedia Group, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 8.1% to 2.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 79, DPO 616, DIO 60). At a 8.1% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.4x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $417.91 per share, suggesting EXPE is undervalued by 78.8% at the current price of $233.74.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,346 | 2,512 | 2,714 | 2,901 | 2,976 | 3,051 |
| (−) Net Interest | 388 | 416 | 449 | 480 | 493 | 505 |
| (+) D&A | 741 | 803 | 881 | 939 | 1,031 | 1,057 |
| EBITDA | 3,476 | 3,731 | 4,045 | 4,320 | 4,500 | 4,613 |
| (−) Tax | 631 | 675 | 730 | 780 | 800 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 982 | 1,052 | 1,137 | 1,215 | 1,246 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -891 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 2,754 | 2,002 | 2,177 | 2,324 | 2,453 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 14.4x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 66,514 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.07% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 2,649 | 1,782 | 1,793 | 1,771 | 1,730 | 45,119 |
| Enterprise Value | 54,845 | |||||
| Projection Period | 9,726 | 17.7% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 45,119 | 82.3% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (307) | |||||
| Equity Value | 55,152 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 132M | |||||
| Fair Price | $418 | +78.8% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 10.4x | 12.4x | 14.4x | 16.4x | 18.4x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $351 | $403 | $455 | $507 | $559 |
| 7.1% | $336 | $386 | $436 | $485 | $535 |
| 8.1% | $323 | $370 | $418 | $465 | $513 |
| 9.1% | $310 | $356 | $401 | $446 | $492 |
| 10.1% | $298 | $342 | $385 | $428 | $471 |
Current price: $233.74. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.