Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 1.1% to -9.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 65, DPO 40, DIO 60). At a 8.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.7x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $127.18 per share, suggesting EXPD is fairly valued by 11.3% at the current price of $143.38.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,473 | 1,526 | 1,548 | 1,401 | 1,267 | 1,299 |
| (−) Net Interest | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| (+) D&A | 51 | 53 | 45 | 47 | 47 | 48 |
| EBITDA | 1,529 | 1,584 | 1,598 | 1,451 | 1,318 | 1,351 |
| (−) Tax | 382 | 396 | 402 | 364 | 329 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 45 | 47 | 47 | 43 | 39 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 1,625 | 90 | 38 | -253 | -229 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -523 | 1,050 | 1,111 | 1,298 | 1,179 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 15.7x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 21,264 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.80% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -502 | 926 | 900 | 966 | 807 | 13,949 |
| Enterprise Value | 17,046 | |||||
| Projection Period | 3,097 | 18.2% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 13,949 | 81.8% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (284) | |||||
| Equity Value | 17,330 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 136M | |||||
| Fair Price | $127 | -11.3% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 11.7x | 13.7x | 15.7x | 17.7x | 19.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.8% | $110 | $124 | $139 | $153 | $167 |
| 7.8% | $105 | $119 | $133 | $146 | $160 |
| 8.8% | $101 | $114 | $127 | $140 | $153 |
| 9.8% | $97 | $109 | $122 | $134 | $147 |
| 10.8% | $93 | $105 | $117 | $129 | $141 |
Current price: $143.38. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.