Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Exelon Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 3.7% to 2.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 64, DPO 86, DIO 22). At a 5.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (86% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $163.45 per share, suggesting EXC is undervalued by 238.2% at the current price of $48.33.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 6,351 | 6,544 | 6,760 | 6,888 | 7,088 | 7,265 |
| (−) Net Interest | 2,003 | 2,064 | 2,132 | 2,173 | 2,236 | 2,292 |
| (+) D&A | 7,632 | 7,868 | 8,327 | 8,795 | 9,363 | 9,597 |
| EBITDA | 15,987 | 16,477 | 17,219 | 17,857 | 18,687 | 19,154 |
| (−) Tax | 690 | 711 | 734 | 748 | 770 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 9,161 | 9,439 | 9,751 | 9,936 | 10,223 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -544 | 51 | 57 | 34 | 53 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 6,680 | 6,275 | 6,677 | 7,138 | 7,640 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.8x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 244,211 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.72% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 6,497 | 5,773 | 5,810 | 5,876 | 5,948 | 184,916 |
| Enterprise Value | 214,819 | |||||
| Projection Period | 29,903 | 13.9% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 184,916 | 86.1% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 49,402 | |||||
| Equity Value | 165,417 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 1012M | |||||
| Fair Price | $163 | +238.2% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.7x | 10.7x | 12.7x | 14.7x | 16.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.7% | $120 | $152 | $183 | $215 | $246 |
| 4.7% | $113 | $143 | $173 | $203 | $233 |
| 5.7% | $106 | $135 | $163 | $192 | $221 |
| 6.7% | $100 | $127 | $154 | $182 | $209 |
| 7.7% | $94 | $120 | $146 | $172 | $198 |
Current price: $48.33. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.