Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Evergy, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.2% to 6.1% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 22, DPO 58, DIO 69). At a 6.0% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (88% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 12.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $163.37 per share, suggesting EVRG is undervalued by 102.9% at the current price of $80.51.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,076 | 1,137 | 1,194 | 1,292 | 1,371 | 1,406 |
| (−) Net Interest | 534 | 564 | 592 | 641 | 680 | 697 |
| (+) D&A | 2,321 | 2,426 | 2,520 | 2,607 | 2,739 | 2,807 |
| EBITDA | 3,931 | 4,127 | 4,306 | 4,540 | 4,790 | 4,910 |
| (−) Tax | 56 | 59 | 62 | 68 | 72 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 2,496 | 2,637 | 2,768 | 2,997 | 3,180 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -299 | 28 | 26 | 46 | 37 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,678 | 1,402 | 1,449 | 1,430 | 1,502 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 12.8x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 63,092 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.02% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,630 | 1,284 | 1,252 | 1,165 | 1,154 | 47,101 |
| Enterprise Value | 53,586 | |||||
| Projection Period | 6,485 | 12.1% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 47,101 | 87.9% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 15,412 | |||||
| Equity Value | 38,173 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 234M | |||||
| Fair Price | $163 | +103.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 8.8x | 10.8x | 12.8x | 14.8x | 16.8x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.0% | $116 | $150 | $185 | $219 | $254 |
| 5.0% | $108 | $141 | $174 | $207 | $240 |
| 6.0% | $101 | $132 | $163 | $195 | $226 |
| 7.0% | $94 | $124 | $154 | $183 | $213 |
| 8.0% | $87 | $116 | $144 | $173 | $201 |
Current price: $80.51. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.