Elastic N.V.

ESTC

TechnologySoftware - ApplicationNYSE

$52.25

Market Cap: $5.41B

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 14:04

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.09 – $29.58	$0.13	-99.8%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$11.77 – $86.08	$17.00	-67.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$33.62 – $90.65	$50.37	-3.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$17.00

Market Price

$52.25

Upside / Downside

-67.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -3.7% to a target of 10.2% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.6%, Elastic N.V. (ESTC) has an intrinsic value of $17.00 per share (range: $11.77 – $86.08).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-3.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.5%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,735	17.0%	-0.9%	-16	-16	32	(18)	43	-44	-42
2027	1,970	13.5%	1.9%	37	29	36	(31)	54	-20	-17
2028	2,237	13.6%	4.7%	104	82	41	(48)	62	14	12
2029	2,539	13.5%	7.4%	189	149	47	(68)	70	58	44
2030	3,173	24.9%	10.2%	325	257	59	(103)	146	66	46
2031	3,964	24.9%	10.2%	406	321	73	(150)	183	61	39
2032	4,780	20.6%	10.2%	489	387	89	(208)	188	79	46
2033	5,552	16.2%	10.2%	569	449	103	(272)	179	102	55
2034	6,207	11.8%	10.2%	636	502	115	(338)	151	128	63
2035	6,665	7.4%	10.2%	683	539	123	(400)	106	157	72

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)316

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)2,878

PV of Terminal Value1,313

Enterprise Value1,630

(–) Net Debt-133

Equity Value1,762

(÷) Shares Outstanding104

Fair Value per Share$17.00

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.6%	$-6	$-0	$28	$57	$86
7.6%	$-5	$-0	$21	$43	$65
8.6%	$-5	$-0	$17	$34	$52
9.6%	$-5	$-0	$14	$28	$43
10.6%	$-4	$-0	$12	$24	$36

Current price: $52.25. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 23.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.13

Market Price

$52.25

Upside / Downside

-99.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-3.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.5%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,735	17.0%	-0.9%	-16	-16	32	(27)	43	-54	-52
2027	1,970	13.5%	1.9%	37	29	36	(53)	54	-41	-37
2028	2,237	13.6%	4.7%	104	82	41	(85)	62	-23	-18
2029	2,539	13.5%	7.4%	189	149	47	(124)	70	2	2
2030	3,173	24.9%	10.2%	325	257	59	(190)	146	-21	-15

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-119

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-119

(–) Net Debt-133

Equity Value13

(÷) Shares Outstanding104

Fair Value per Share$0.13

Note:Terminal value is $0 because Year 5 FCFF is negative. The company's operating margin convergence does not fully offset reinvestment needs within 5 years. See the sensitivity matrix for scenarios where the model produces a positive terminal value (higher target margin or lower WACC).

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.6%	$-3	$-1	$0	$13	$30
7.6%	$-3	$-1	$0	$10	$23
8.6%	$-3	$-1	$0	$8	$19
9.6%	$-3	$-1	$0	$7	$16
10.6%	$-2	$-1	$0	$6	$13

Current price: $52.25. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 23.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$50.37

Market Price

$52.25

Upside / Downside

-3.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Elastic N.V. (ESTC) has a fair value of $50.37 based on 8 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Elastic N.V.ESTC	5,416	3.6x	4.2x
Procore Technologies, Inc.PCOR	8,070	5.8x	5.1x
Paycom Software, Inc.PAYC	7,470	3.5x	3.9x
InterDigital, Inc.IDCC	7,227	8.4x	8.1x
Open Text CorporationOTEX	6,195	2.3x	2.0x
Pegasystems Inc.PEGA	6,138	3.4x	4.1x
AppFolio, Inc.APPF	5,974	6.2x	7.5x
NICE Ltd.NICE	5,419	1.8x	1.6x
monday.com Ltd.MNDY	3,715	2.0x	1.7x
Industry Median		3.5x	4.0x
(*) Revenue		1,483	1,261
= Enterprise Value		5,171	5,006
(-) Net Debt		-133	-133
Equity Value		5,304	5,138
(/) Outstanding shares		104	104
Fair Price		$51	$50

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$50.37

-3.6%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Valuation Summary

Updated May 9, 2026 14:04

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$0.09 – $29.58	$0.13	-99.8%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$11.77 – $86.08	$17.00	-67.5%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$33.62 – $90.65	$50.37	-3.6%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$17.00

Market Price

$52.25

Upside / Downside

-67.5%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-3.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.5%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,735	17.0%	-0.9%	-16	-16	32	(18)	43	-44	-42
2027	1,970	13.5%	1.9%	37	29	36	(31)	54	-20	-17
2028	2,237	13.6%	4.7%	104	82	41	(48)	62	14	12
2029	2,539	13.5%	7.4%	189	149	47	(68)	70	58	44
2030	3,173	24.9%	10.2%	325	257	59	(103)	146	66	46
2031	3,964	24.9%	10.2%	406	321	73	(150)	183	61	39
2032	4,780	20.6%	10.2%	489	387	89	(208)	188	79	46
2033	5,552	16.2%	10.2%	569	449	103	(272)	179	102	55
2034	6,207	11.8%	10.2%	636	502	115	(338)	151	128	63
2035	6,665	7.4%	10.2%	683	539	123	(400)	106	157	72

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)316

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)2,878

PV of Terminal Value1,313

Enterprise Value1,630

(–) Net Debt-133

Equity Value1,762

(÷) Shares Outstanding104

Fair Value per Share$17.00

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.6%	$-6	$-0	$28	$57	$86
7.6%	$-5	$-0	$21	$43	$65
8.6%	$-5	$-0	$17	$34	$52
9.6%	$-5	$-0	$14	$28	$43
10.6%	$-4	$-0	$12	$24	$36

Current price: $52.25. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 23.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Elastic N.V. (ESTC) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$0.13

Market Price

$52.25

Upside / Downside

-99.8%

Verdict

Overvalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-3.7%

Target Operating Margin

10.2%

WACC

8.6%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

0.5%

Target CapEx/Rev

6.0%

D&A/Revenue

1.9%

Tax Rate

21.0%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	1,735	17.0%	-0.9%	-16	-16	32	(27)	43	-54	-52
2027	1,970	13.5%	1.9%	37	29	36	(53)	54	-41	-37
2028	2,237	13.6%	4.7%	104	82	41	(85)	62	-23	-18
2029	2,539	13.5%	7.4%	189	149	47	(124)	70	2	2
2030	3,173	24.9%	10.2%	325	257	59	(190)	146	-21	-15

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)-119

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)0

PV of Terminal Value0

Enterprise Value-119

(–) Net Debt-133

Equity Value13

(÷) Shares Outstanding104

Fair Value per Share$0.13

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	4.2%	7.2%	10.2%	13.2%	16.2%
6.6%	$-3	$-1	$0	$13	$30
7.6%	$-3	$-1	$0	$10	$23
8.6%	$-3	$-1	$0	$8	$19
9.6%	$-3	$-1	$0	$7	$16
10.6%	$-2	$-1	$0	$6	$13

Current price: $52.25. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 23.1% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$50.37

Market Price

$52.25

Upside / Downside

-3.6%

Verdict

Overvalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Elastic N.V. (ESTC) has a fair value of $50.37 based on 8 comparable companies in the Software - Application industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Software - Application

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Elastic N.V.ESTC	5,416	3.6x	4.2x
Procore Technologies, Inc.PCOR	8,070	5.8x	5.1x
Paycom Software, Inc.PAYC	7,470	3.5x	3.9x
InterDigital, Inc.IDCC	7,227	8.4x	8.1x
Open Text CorporationOTEX	6,195	2.3x	2.0x
Pegasystems Inc.PEGA	6,138	3.4x	4.1x
AppFolio, Inc.APPF	5,974	6.2x	7.5x
NICE Ltd.NICE	5,419	1.8x	1.6x
monday.com Ltd.MNDY	3,715	2.0x	1.7x
Industry Median		3.5x	4.0x
(*) Revenue		1,483	1,261
= Enterprise Value		5,171	5,006
(-) Net Debt		-133	-133
Equity Value		5,304	5,138
(/) Outstanding shares		104	104
Fair Price		$51	$50

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$50.37

-3.6%