Using the PEG framework with historical EPS growth of 19.1% plus 2.3% dividend yield, Erie Indemnity Company has a fair value of $203.23 based on TTM EPS (FY2025) of $10.62. The current PEG ratio is 1.20.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG is most informative for high-growth companies — the PEG sweet spot.
| EPS Growth RateHistorical | 16.9% |
| Dividend Yield | +2.3% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 19.1% |
| Fair P/E | 19.1x |
| TTM EPS (FY2025) | $10.62 |
| Fair Value | $203.23 |
No analyst estimates available.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $297.9M | $5.69 | — |
| FY2022 | $298.6M | $5.71 | +0.4% |
| FY2023 | $446.1M | $8.53 | +49.4% |
| FY2024 | $600.3M | $11.48 | +34.6% |
| FY2025 | $559.3M | $10.62 | -7.5% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 16.9%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.