Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project EQT Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.6% to 2.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 67, DPO 117, DIO 60). At a 7.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $71.74 per share, suggesting EQT is fairly valued by 6.7% at the current price of $67.20.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,861 | 2,897 | 3,059 | 3,443 | 3,529 | 3,617 |
| (−) Net Interest | 468 | 473 | 500 | 563 | 577 | 591 |
| (+) D&A | 1,803 | 2,115 | 2,365 | 2,520 | 2,699 | 2,766 |
| EBITDA | 5,132 | 5,486 | 5,923 | 6,526 | 6,804 | 6,974 |
| (−) Tax | 512 | 518 | 547 | 615 | 631 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 2,615 | 2,648 | 2,795 | 3,147 | 3,225 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 728 | 10 | 48 | 114 | 25 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,278 | 2,310 | 2,533 | 2,650 | 2,923 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 8.8x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 61,025 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.31% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,234 | 2,078 | 2,123 | 2,070 | 2,128 | 42,881 |
| Enterprise Value | 52,513 | |||||
| Projection Period | 9,632 | 18.3% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 42,881 | 81.7% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 7,690 | |||||
| Equity Value | 44,824 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 625M | |||||
| Fair Price | $72 | +6.8% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 4.7x | 6.7x | 8.7x | 10.7x | 12.7x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3% | $45 | $62 | $79 | $97 | $114 |
| 6.3% | $43 | $59 | $75 | $92 | $108 |
| 7.3% | $40 | $56 | $72 | $87 | $103 |
| 8.3% | $38 | $53 | $68 | $83 | $98 |
| 9.3% | $36 | $51 | $65 | $79 | $94 |
Current price: $67.20. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.