Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 10.5% plus 0.1% dividend yield, EMCOR Group, Inc. has a fair value of $296.71 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $28.32. The current PEG ratio is 2.48.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 10.3% |
| Dividend Yield | +0.1% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 10.5% |
| Fair P/E | 10.5x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $28.32 |
| Fair Value | $296.71 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $28.19 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $28.32 | +0.4% | 7 |
| FY2027E | $31.80 | +12.3% | 6 |
| FY2028E | $35.34 | +11.1% | 4 |
| FY2029E | $40.38 | +14.3% | 3 |
| FY2030E | $46.11 | +14.2% | 3 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 10.3%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $383.5M | $7.06 | — |
| FY2022 | $406.1M | $8.10 | +14.7% |
| FY2023 | $633.0M | $13.31 | +64.3% |
| FY2024 | $1.0B | $21.52 | +61.7% |
| FY2025 | $1.3B | $28.19 | +31.0% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 41.4%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.