Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Duke Energy Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 2.4% to 2.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 53, DPO 106, DIO 92). At a 5.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (86% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $344.60 per share, suggesting DUK is undervalued by 166.1% at the current price of $129.49.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 9,730 | 10,102 | 10,529 | 10,899 | 11,207 | 11,487 |
| (−) Net Interest | 3,316 | 3,443 | 3,588 | 3,714 | 3,819 | 3,915 |
| (+) D&A | 11,998 | 12,779 | 13,333 | 13,759 | 14,354 | 14,713 |
| EBITDA | 25,044 | 26,323 | 27,450 | 28,373 | 29,380 | 30,115 |
| (−) Tax | 892 | 927 | 966 | 1,000 | 1,028 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 13,618 | 14,139 | 14,736 | 15,254 | 15,685 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 530 | 156 | 179 | 156 | 129 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 10,003 | 11,102 | 11,569 | 11,963 | 12,538 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 13.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 410,164 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.83% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 9,724 | 10,197 | 10,041 | 9,812 | 9,716 | 308,979 |
| Enterprise Value | 358,469 | |||||
| Projection Period | 49,490 | 13.8% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 308,979 | 86.2% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 90,624 | |||||
| Equity Value | 267,845 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 777M | |||||
| Fair Price | $345 | +166.2% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 9.6x | 11.6x | 13.6x | 15.6x | 17.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.8% | $259 | $323 | $388 | $452 | $516 |
| 4.8% | $243 | $304 | $365 | $427 | $488 |
| 5.8% | $228 | $286 | $345 | $403 | $461 |
| 6.8% | $213 | $269 | $325 | $381 | $436 |
| 7.8% | $200 | $253 | $306 | $359 | $413 |
Current price: $129.49. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.