Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Dover Corporation's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.0% to 0.6% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 65, DPO 72, DIO 93). At a 8.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (81% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.1x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $167.30 per share, suggesting DOV is overvalued by 20.7% at the current price of $210.90.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,250 | 1,307 | 1,364 | 1,372 | 1,380 | 1,414 |
| (−) Net Interest | 130 | 136 | 142 | 143 | 144 | 147 |
| (+) D&A | 195 | 203 | 203 | 211 | 224 | 229 |
| EBITDA | 1,575 | 1,645 | 1,708 | 1,725 | 1,747 | 1,791 |
| (−) Tax | 233 | 243 | 254 | 255 | 257 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 212 | 222 | 231 | 233 | 234 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 64 | 83 | 84 | 12 | 12 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 1,066 | 1,098 | 1,140 | 1,225 | 1,244 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 17.1x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 30,690 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.43% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,023 | 972 | 931 | 923 | 865 | 20,477 |
| Enterprise Value | 25,192 | |||||
| Projection Period | 4,714 | 18.7% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 20,477 | 81.3% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 2,102 | |||||
| Equity Value | 23,089 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 138M | |||||
| Fair Price | $167 | -20.7% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 13.1x | 15.1x | 17.1x | 19.1x | 21.1x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $145 | $164 | $183 | $202 | $221 |
| 7.4% | $139 | $157 | $175 | $193 | $211 |
| 8.4% | $133 | $150 | $167 | $185 | $202 |
| 9.4% | $127 | $143 | $160 | $176 | $193 |
| 10.4% | $121 | $137 | $153 | $169 | $184 |
Current price: $210.90. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.