Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Healthpeak Properties, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -1.1% to 10.5% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 81, DPO 106, DIO 60). At a 6.4% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (85% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 22.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $39.98 per share, suggesting DOC is undervalued by 137.5% at the current price of $16.84.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,054 | 1,096 | 1,181 | 1,305 | 1,441 | 1,477 |
| (−) Net Interest | 263 | 273 | 295 | 325 | 359 | 368 |
| (+) D&A | 27 | 53 | 81 | 111 | 143 | 147 |
| EBITDA | 1,344 | 1,423 | 1,557 | 1,740 | 1,944 | 1,992 |
| (−) Tax | 8 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 132 | 138 | 148 | 164 | 181 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 484 | 18 | 36 | 53 | 58 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 720 | 1,259 | 1,363 | 1,514 | 1,694 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 22.0x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 43,870 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.38% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 698 | 1,148 | 1,168 | 1,219 | 1,282 | 32,205 |
| Enterprise Value | 37,720 | |||||
| Projection Period | 5,515 | 14.6% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 32,205 | 85.4% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 9,903 | |||||
| Equity Value | 27,817 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 696M | |||||
| Fair Price | $40 | +137.4% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 18.0x | 20.0x | 22.0x | 24.0x | 26.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.4% | $36 | $40 | $45 | $50 | $54 |
| 5.4% | $34 | $38 | $42 | $47 | $51 |
| 6.4% | $32 | $36 | $40 | $44 | $48 |
| 7.4% | $30 | $34 | $38 | $42 | $46 |
| 8.4% | $28 | $32 | $35 | $39 | $43 |
Current price: $16.84. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.