Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project The Walt Disney Company's cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.1% to 1.4% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 56, DPO 104, DIO 12). At a 7.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (68% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.4x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $89.17 per share, suggesting DIS is fairly valued by 6.2% at the current price of $95.03.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 14,776 | 15,423 | 16,071 | 16,703 | 16,940 | 17,363 |
| (−) Net Interest | 1,882 | 1,965 | 2,047 | 2,128 | 2,158 | 2,212 |
| (+) D&A | 5,385 | 5,935 | 6,268 | 6,650 | 6,999 | 7,174 |
| EBITDA | 22,044 | 23,323 | 24,386 | 25,481 | 26,096 | 26,748 |
| (−) Tax | 2,202 | 2,298 | 2,394 | 2,489 | 2,524 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 6,328 | 6,605 | 6,882 | 7,153 | 7,255 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -1,389 | -48 | -48 | -47 | -18 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 14,903 | 14,468 | 15,157 | 15,886 | 16,335 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 7.4x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 196,868 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.58% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 14,368 | 12,966 | 12,627 | 12,302 | 11,759 | 136,631 |
| Enterprise Value | 200,653 | |||||
| Projection Period | 64,022 | 31.9% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 136,631 | 68.1% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 39,182 | |||||
| Equity Value | 161,471 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 1811M | |||||
| Fair Price | $89 | -6.2% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 3.4x | 5.4x | 7.4x | 9.4x | 11.4x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.6% | $53 | $76 | $98 | $121 | $143 |
| 6.6% | $51 | $72 | $94 | $115 | $137 |
| 7.6% | $48 | $69 | $89 | $110 | $130 |
| 8.6% | $46 | $65 | $85 | $105 | $124 |
| 9.6% | $44 | $62 | $81 | $100 | $118 |
Current price: $95.03. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.