Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Dominion Energy, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 6.1% to 15.9% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 70, DPO 58, DIO 85). At a 5.8% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (91% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $260.70 per share, suggesting D is undervalued by 327.4% at the current price of $61.00.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 5,531 | 5,870 | 6,229 | 6,700 | 7,764 | 7,958 |
| (−) Net Interest | 1,942 | 2,061 | 2,187 | 2,352 | 2,726 | 2,794 |
| (+) D&A | 9,824 | 11,011 | 12,004 | 12,658 | 13,078 | 13,404 |
| EBITDA | 17,298 | 18,941 | 20,421 | 21,710 | 23,567 | 24,157 |
| (−) Tax | 642 | 682 | 723 | 778 | 902 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 11,992 | 12,725 | 13,505 | 14,525 | 16,832 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 6 | 247 | 262 | 343 | 776 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 4,658 | 5,288 | 5,930 | 6,064 | 5,058 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 13.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 329,014 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 5.79% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 4,528 | 4,859 | 5,151 | 4,980 | 3,926 | 248,295 |
| Enterprise Value | 271,740 | |||||
| Projection Period | 23,445 | 8.6% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 248,295 | 91.4% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 48,691 | |||||
| Equity Value | 223,049 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 855M | |||||
| Fair Price | $261 | +327.5% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 9.6x | 11.6x | 13.6x | 15.6x | 17.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.8% | $197 | $244 | $291 | $338 | $385 |
| 4.8% | $186 | $231 | $275 | $320 | $365 |
| 5.8% | $175 | $218 | $261 | $303 | $346 |
| 6.8% | $165 | $206 | $247 | $287 | $328 |
| 7.8% | $156 | $195 | $234 | $272 | $311 |
Current price: $61.00. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.