Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 19.6% plus 3.1% dividend yield, Chevron Corporation has a fair value of $161.09 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $8.21. The current PEG ratio is 1.29.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG is most informative for high-growth companies — the PEG sweet spot.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 16.6% |
| Dividend Yield | +3.1% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 19.6% |
| Fair P/E | 19.6x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $8.21 |
| Fair Value | $161.09 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $6.63 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $8.21 | +23.8% | 11 |
| FY2027E | $9.47 | +15.4% | 11 |
| FY2028E | $10.90 | +15.1% | 9 |
| FY2029E | $12.81 | +17.6% | 4 |
| FY2030E | $14.27 | +11.3% | 4 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 16.6%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $15.6B | $8.14 | — |
| FY2022 | $35.5B | $18.28 | +124.6% |
| FY2023 | $21.4B | $11.36 | -37.9% |
| FY2024 | $17.7B | $9.72 | -14.4% |
| FY2025 | $12.3B | $6.63 | -31.8% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -5.0%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.