Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 12.1%, Carvana Co. has a fair value of $89.70 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $7.39. The current PEG ratio is 3.35.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 12.1% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 12.1% |
| Fair P/E | 12.1x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $7.39 |
| Fair Value | $89.70 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $8.45 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $7.39 | -12.5% | 16 |
| FY2027E | $10.31 | +39.5% | 17 |
| FY2028E | $12.48 | +21.0% | 12 |
| FY2029E | $13.20 | +5.8% | 11 |
| FY2030E | $14.98 | +13.5% | 6 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 12.1%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $-135.0M | $-1.63 | — |
| FY2022 | $-1.6B | $-15.74 | — |
| FY2023 | $450.0M | $0.75 | — |
| FY2024 | $210.0M | $1.59 | +112.0% |
| FY2025 | $1.4B | $8.45 | +431.4% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 271.7%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.