Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Corteva, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 4.0% to 2.7% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 121, DPO 162, DIO 223). At a 8.5% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (84% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.2x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $78.97 per share, suggesting CTVA is fairly valued by 4.6% at the current price of $82.74.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 2,585 | 2,664 | 2,734 | 2,755 | 2,828 | 2,899 |
| (−) Net Interest | 160 | 165 | 169 | 170 | 175 | 179 |
| (+) D&A | 592 | 604 | 614 | 629 | 645 | 661 |
| EBITDA | 3,336 | 3,433 | 3,517 | 3,554 | 3,648 | 3,739 |
| (−) Tax | 579 | 597 | 612 | 617 | 633 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 634 | 653 | 670 | 675 | 694 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 109 | 240 | 209 | 62 | 221 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 2,015 | 1,944 | 2,026 | 2,200 | 2,100 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 17.2x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 64,463 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.53% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 1,934 | 1,719 | 1,651 | 1,652 | 1,453 | 42,815 |
| Enterprise Value | 51,224 | |||||
| Projection Period | 8,409 | 16.4% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 42,815 | 83.6% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (1,941) | |||||
| Equity Value | 53,165 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 673M | |||||
| Fair Price | $79 | -4.5% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 13.2x | 15.2x | 17.2x | 19.2x | 21.2x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $70 | $78 | $86 | $94 | $102 |
| 7.5% | $67 | $75 | $82 | $90 | $98 |
| 8.5% | $64 | $72 | $79 | $86 | $94 |
| 9.5% | $62 | $69 | $76 | $83 | $90 |
| 10.5% | $59 | $66 | $73 | $80 | $86 |
Current price: $82.74. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.