Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 13.1% plus 1.3% dividend yield, CSX Corporation has a fair value of $24.22 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.85. The current PEG ratio is 1.64.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 11.8% |
| Dividend Yield | +1.3% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 13.1% |
| Fair P/E | 13.1x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $1.85 |
| Fair Value | $24.22 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $1.54 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $1.85 | +19.9% | 16 |
| FY2027E | $2.09 | +13.0% | 16 |
| FY2028E | $2.27 | +9.0% | 7 |
| FY2029E | $2.45 | +7.5% | 3 |
| FY2030E | $2.69 | +10.0% | 6 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 11.8%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $3.8B | $1.68 | — |
| FY2022 | $4.1B | $1.95 | +16.1% |
| FY2023 | $3.7B | $1.82 | -6.7% |
| FY2024 | $3.5B | $1.79 | -1.6% |
| FY2025 | $2.9B | $1.54 | -14.0% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -2.2%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.