Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 22.7% to 16.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 101, DPO 33, DIO 60). At a 9.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (0% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 27.8x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $1.36 per share, suggesting CRWD is overvalued by 99.7% at the current price of $391.81.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | -351 | -427 | -519 | -589 | -685 | -702 |
| (−) Net Interest | 59 | 71 | 87 | 98 | 114 | 117 |
| (+) D&A | 251 | 326 | 396 | 499 | 607 | 622 |
| EBITDA | -42 | -30 | -36 | 8 | 37 | 37 |
| (−) Tax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 509 | 619 | 752 | 854 | 992 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 489 | 377 | 457 | 351 | 474 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -1,040 | -1,026 | -1,244 | -1,196 | -1,429 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 27.8x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 1,040 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.27% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -995 | -898 | -997 | -877 | -959 | 668 |
| Enterprise Value | -4,058 | |||||
| Projection Period | -4,726 | 0% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 668 | 0% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (4,410) | |||||
| Equity Value | 352 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 258M | |||||
| Fair Price | $1 | -99.7% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 23.8x | 25.8x | 27.8x | 29.8x | 31.8x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.3% | $0 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| 8.3% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 | $1 |
| 9.3% | $1 | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 |
| 10.3% | $1 | $1 | $2 | $2 | $2 |
| 11.3% | $2 | $2 | $2 | $2 | $2 |
Current price: $391.81. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.