Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Cencora, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 7.6% to 10.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 29, DPO 65, DIO 25). At a 7.3% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (82% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $444.25 per share, suggesting COR is undervalued by 39.3% at the current price of $318.92.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 3,460 | 3,695 | 3,953 | 4,348 | 4,819 | 4,940 |
| (−) Net Interest | 348 | 371 | 397 | 437 | 484 | 497 |
| (+) D&A | 510 | 555 | 598 | 658 | 728 | 746 |
| EBITDA | 4,318 | 4,621 | 4,948 | 5,443 | 6,031 | 6,182 |
| (−) Tax | 891 | 951 | 1,018 | 1,119 | 1,241 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 665 | 710 | 760 | 835 | 926 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -269 | -628 | -692 | -1,057 | -1,263 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 3,031 | 3,588 | 3,863 | 4,545 | 5,127 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 17.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 108,490 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.27% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 2,926 | 3,230 | 3,241 | 3,555 | 3,738 | 76,375 |
| Enterprise Value | 93,066 | |||||
| Projection Period | 16,690 | 17.9% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 76,375 | 82.1% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 6,353 | |||||
| Equity Value | 86,713 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 195M | |||||
| Fair Price | $444 | +39.3% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 13.6x | 15.6x | 17.6x | 19.6x | 21.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.3% | $389 | $438 | $487 | $536 | $585 |
| 6.3% | $372 | $418 | $465 | $512 | $559 |
| 7.3% | $355 | $400 | $444 | $489 | $533 |
| 8.3% | $339 | $382 | $424 | $467 | $510 |
| 9.3% | $324 | $365 | $406 | $446 | $487 |
Current price: $318.92. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.