Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Coinbase Global, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -1.4% to -39.2% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 57, DPO 18, DIO 60). At a 7.2% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (67% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $47.27 per share, suggesting COIN is overvalued by 72.8% at the current price of $173.66.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 544 | 641 | 688 | 674 | 409 | 420 |
| (−) Net Interest | 117 | 137 | 147 | 144 | 88 | 90 |
| (+) D&A | 17 | 9 | 18 | 28 | 38 | 39 |
| EBITDA | 678 | 787 | 853 | 846 | 535 | 549 |
| (−) Tax | 18 | 21 | 23 | 22 | 13 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 41 | 48 | 51 | 50 | 31 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | -292 | 234 | 113 | -34 | -639 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 912 | 484 | 665 | 808 | 1,130 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 17.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 9,627 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 7.23% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 880 | 436 | 559 | 633 | 825 | 6,789 |
| Enterprise Value | 10,122 | |||||
| Projection Period | 3,333 | 32.9% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 6,789 | 67.1% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | (3,454) | |||||
| Equity Value | 13,576 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 287M | |||||
| Fair Price | $47 | -72.8% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 13.6x | 15.6x | 17.6x | 19.6x | 21.6x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.2% | $44 | $47 | $50 | $53 | $56 |
| 6.2% | $43 | $46 | $49 | $52 | $54 |
| 7.2% | $42 | $45 | $47 | $50 | $53 |
| 8.2% | $41 | $43 | $46 | $49 | $51 |
| 9.2% | $40 | $42 | $45 | $47 | $50 |
Current price: $173.66. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.