Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 14.3%, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. has a fair value of $16.26 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $1.14. The current PEG ratio is 1.99.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
PEG works well for steady growers with predictable earnings.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 14.3% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%) | 14.3% |
| Fair P/E | 14.3x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $1.14 |
| Fair Value | $16.26 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $1.14 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $1.14 | +0.1% | 27 |
| FY2027E | $1.36 | +19.5% | 27 |
| FY2028E | $1.64 | +20.1% | 13 |
| FY2029E | $2.00 | +22.0% | 12 |
| FY2030E | $2.22 | +11.2% | 6 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: 14.3%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $653.0M | $0.46 | — |
| FY2022 | $899.1M | $0.64 | +39.1% |
| FY2023 | $1.2B | $0.89 | +39.1% |
| FY2024 | $1.5B | $1.11 | +24.7% |
| FY2025 | $1.5B | $1.14 | +2.7% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 25.5%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.