Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.

CLF

Basic MaterialsSteelNYSE

$10.99

Market Cap: $6.27B

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Valuation Summary

Updated Apr 23, 2026 22:31

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$3.35 – $129.87	$36.59	+302.5%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$3.16 – $107.98	$29.03	+219.4%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$38.54 – $156.25	$56.36	+520.0%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$29.03

Market Price

$10.99

Upside / Downside

+164.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -7.3% to a target of 13.1% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.2%, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) has an intrinsic value of $29.03 per share (range: $3.16 – $107.98).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.1%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.5%

D&A/Revenue

5.0%

Tax Rate

22.9%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	20,499	10.2%	-3.2%	-658	-658	1,022	(785)	341	-762	-732
2027	20,996	2.4%	0.9%	183	141	1,047	(889)	113	186	165
2028	21,263	1.3%	5.0%	1,052	811	1,060	(987)	61	824	676
2029	22,233	4.6%	9.0%	2,007	1,548	1,109	(1,122)	221	1,314	996
2030	21,717	-2.3%	13.1%	2,846	2,195	1,083	(1,184)	-117	2,211	1,550
2031	21,405	-1.4%	13.1%	2,805	2,163	1,068	(1,254)	-71	2,048	1,326
2032	21,288	-0.6%	13.1%	2,790	2,151	1,062	(1,333)	-27	1,906	1,141
2033	21,360	0.3%	13.1%	2,799	2,159	1,065	(1,425)	16	1,783	986
2034	21,622	1.2%	13.1%	2,834	2,185	1,078	(1,530)	60	1,674	855
2035	22,079	2.1%	13.1%	2,894	2,231	1,101	(1,652)	104	1,577	745

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)7,708

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)31,120

PV of Terminal Value14,695

Enterprise Value22,403

(–) Net Debt8,114

Equity Value14,289

(÷) Shares Outstanding492

Fair Value per Share$29.03

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%	19.1%
6.2%	$10	$34	$59	$83	$108
7.2%	$3	$22	$40	$59	$78
8.2%	$-1	$14	$29	$44	$59
9.2%	$-4	$9	$21	$34	$46
10.2%	$-6	$5	$16	$26	$37

Current price: $10.99. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$36.59

Market Price

$10.99

Upside / Downside

+232.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.1%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.5%

D&A/Revenue

5.0%

Tax Rate

22.9%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	20,499	10.2%	-3.2%	-658	-658	1,022	(868)	341	-845	-812
2027	20,996	2.4%	0.9%	183	141	1,047	(1,060)	113	15	14
2028	21,263	1.3%	5.0%	1,052	811	1,060	(1,246)	61	565	464
2029	22,233	4.6%	9.0%	2,007	1,548	1,109	(1,483)	221	953	723
2030	21,717	-2.3%	13.1%	2,846	2,195	1,083	(1,625)	-117	1,771	1,241

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)1,629

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)34,945

PV of Terminal Value24,492

Enterprise Value26,121

(–) Net Debt8,114

Equity Value18,007

(÷) Shares Outstanding492

Fair Value per Share$36.59

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%	19.1%
6.2%	$20	$47	$75	$102	$130
7.2%	$10	$30	$51	$72	$93
8.2%	$3	$20	$37	$53	$70
9.2%	$-1	$13	$27	$40	$54
10.2%	$-4	$8	$20	$31	$43

Current price: $10.99. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$56.36

Market Price

$10.99

Upside / Downside

+412.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) has a fair value of $56.36 based on 8 comparable companies in the Steel industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Steel

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.CLF	5,409	0.7x	0.7x
First Majestic Silver Corp.AG	9,986	7.4x	5.7x
Hudbay Minerals Inc.HBM	9,532	4.6x	3.5x
Ternium S.A.TX	8,325	0.6x	0.6x
Eastman Chemical CompanyEMN	8,224	1.5x	1.4x
Commercial Metals CompanyCMC	7,545	1.0x	1.0x
B2Gold Corp.BTG	6,649	2.2x	1.7x
NewMarket CorporationNEU	6,419	2.7x	3.0x
Louisiana-Pacific CorporationLPX	5,218	2.0x	1.8x
Industry Median		2.1x	1.7x
(*) Revenue		18,610	18,877
= Enterprise Value		38,911	32,795
(-) Net Debt		8,114	8,114
Equity Value		30,797	24,681
(/) Outstanding shares		492	492
Fair Price		$63	$50

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$56.36

+412.9%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$3.35 – $129.87

$36.59

+302.5%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$3.16 – $107.98

$29.03

+219.4%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$38.54 – $156.25

$56.36

+520.0%

DCF Analysis

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$29.03

Market Price

$10.99

Upside / Downside

+164.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.1%

WACC

8.2%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.5%

D&A/Revenue

5.0%

Tax Rate

22.9%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	20,499	10.2%	-3.2%	-658	-658	1,022	(785)	341	-762	-732
2027	20,996	2.4%	0.9%	183	141	1,047	(889)	113	186	165
2028	21,263	1.3%	5.0%	1,052	811	1,060	(987)	61	824	676
2029	22,233	4.6%	9.0%	2,007	1,548	1,109	(1,122)	221	1,314	996
2030	21,717	-2.3%	13.1%	2,846	2,195	1,083	(1,184)	-117	2,211	1,550
2031	21,405	-1.4%	13.1%	2,805	2,163	1,068	(1,254)	-71	2,048	1,326
2032	21,288	-0.6%	13.1%	2,790	2,151	1,062	(1,333)	-27	1,906	1,141
2033	21,360	0.3%	13.1%	2,799	2,159	1,065	(1,425)	16	1,783	986
2034	21,622	1.2%	13.1%	2,834	2,185	1,078	(1,530)	60	1,674	855
2035	22,079	2.1%	13.1%	2,894	2,231	1,101	(1,652)	104	1,577	745

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)7,708

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)31,120

PV of Terminal Value14,695

Enterprise Value22,403

(–) Net Debt8,114

Equity Value14,289

(÷) Shares Outstanding492

Fair Value per Share$29.03

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%	19.1%
6.2%	$10	$34	$59	$83	$108
7.2%	$3	$22	$40	$59	$78
8.2%	$-1	$14	$29	$44	$59
9.2%	$-4	$9	$21	$34	$46
10.2%	$-6	$5	$16	$26	$37

Current price: $10.99. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$56.36

Market Price

$10.99

Upside / Downside

+412.9%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) has a fair value of $56.36 based on 8 comparable companies in the Steel industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Steel

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.CLF	5,409	0.7x	0.7x
First Majestic Silver Corp.AG	9,986	7.4x	5.7x
Hudbay Minerals Inc.HBM	9,532	4.6x	3.5x
Ternium S.A.TX	8,325	0.6x	0.6x
Eastman Chemical CompanyEMN	8,224	1.5x	1.4x
Commercial Metals CompanyCMC	7,545	1.0x	1.0x
B2Gold Corp.BTG	6,649	2.2x	1.7x
NewMarket CorporationNEU	6,419	2.7x	3.0x
Louisiana-Pacific CorporationLPX	5,218	2.0x	1.8x
Industry Median		2.1x	1.7x
(*) Revenue		18,610	18,877
= Enterprise Value		38,911	32,795
(-) Net Debt		8,114	8,114
Equity Value		30,797	24,681
(/) Outstanding shares		492	492
Fair Price		$63	$50

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$56.36

+412.9%