Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.

CLF

Basic MaterialsSteelNYSE

$11.02

Market Cap: $6.29B

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Valuation Summary

Updated May 11, 2026 00:49

Model	Range	Fair Value	Upside
▸ Discounted Cash Flow
Revenue DCF 5Y	$2.78 – $124.40	$35.38	+221.1%
Revenue DCF 10Y	$2.58 – $103.56	$28.10	+155.0%
▸ Trading Multiples
EV/Revenue	$39.39 – $163.06	$59.44	+439.4%

Valuation History

DCF Analysis

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$28.10

Market Price

$11.02

Upside / Downside

+155.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using a Revenue DCF model with operating margin convergence from -7.3% to a target of 13.1% over 5 years, discounted at a WACC of 8.4%, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) has an intrinsic value of $28.10 per share (range: $2.58 – $103.56).

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.1%

WACC

8.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.5%

D&A/Revenue

5.0%

Tax Rate

22.9%

Operating margin fades linearly from the current level to the industry target over the 5-year projection. CapEx intensity fades from the historical average to a maintenance level (D&A × 1.5). Tax is only applied when operating income is positive (NOL shield).

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	20,535	10.3%	-3.2%	-659	-659	1,024	(787)	350	-771	-740
2027	21,023	2.4%	0.9%	183	141	1,048	(891)	111	188	167
2028	21,200	0.8%	5.0%	1,049	809	1,057	(984)	40	842	689
2029	22,471	6.0%	9.0%	2,029	1,564	1,121	(1,134)	289	1,262	952
2030	21,949	-2.3%	13.1%	2,877	2,218	1,095	(1,197)	-119	2,235	1,557
2031	21,634	-1.4%	13.1%	2,835	2,186	1,079	(1,267)	-72	2,069	1,330
2032	21,515	-0.6%	13.1%	2,820	2,174	1,073	(1,348)	-27	1,927	1,143
2033	21,588	0.3%	13.1%	2,829	2,182	1,077	(1,440)	17	1,802	986
2034	21,853	1.2%	13.1%	2,864	2,208	1,090	(1,546)	60	1,692	855
2035	22,314	2.1%	13.1%	2,924	2,255	1,113	(1,669)	105	1,594	743

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)7,681

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)30,594

PV of Terminal Value14,262

Enterprise Value21,943

(–) Net Debt8,114

Equity Value13,829

(÷) Shares Outstanding492

Fair Value per Share$28.10

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%	19.1%
6.4%	$9	$33	$56	$80	$104
7.4%	$3	$21	$39	$57	$75
8.4%	$-1	$13	$28	$43	$57
9.4%	$-4	$8	$21	$33	$45
10.4%	$-6	$5	$15	$26	$36

Current price: $11.02. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$35.38

Market Price

$11.02

Upside / Downside

+221.1%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.1%

WACC

8.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.5%

D&A/Revenue

5.0%

Tax Rate

22.9%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	20,535	10.3%	-3.2%	-659	-659	1,024	(870)	350	-854	-820
2027	21,023	2.4%	0.9%	183	141	1,048	(1,061)	111	18	16
2028	21,200	0.8%	5.0%	1,049	809	1,057	(1,242)	40	584	478
2029	22,471	6.0%	9.0%	2,029	1,564	1,121	(1,499)	289	897	677
2030	21,949	-2.3%	13.1%	2,877	2,218	1,095	(1,642)	-119	1,790	1,247

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)1,597

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)34,354

PV of Terminal Value23,932

Enterprise Value25,528

(–) Net Debt8,114

Equity Value17,414

(÷) Shares Outstanding492

Fair Value per Share$35.38

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%	19.1%
6.4%	$18	$45	$71	$98	$124
7.4%	$9	$29	$49	$69	$90
8.4%	$3	$19	$35	$52	$68
9.4%	$-1	$12	$26	$39	$53
10.4%	$-4	$7	$19	$31	$42

Current price: $11.02. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$59.44

Market Price

$11.02

Upside / Downside

+439.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) has a fair value of $59.44 based on 8 comparable companies in the Steel industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Steel

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.CLF	5,424	0.7x	0.7x
First Majestic Silver Corp.AG	10,793	8.1x	6.2x
Hudbay Minerals Inc.HBM	9,929	4.7x	3.6x
Ternium S.A.TX	9,073	0.7x	0.6x
Eastman Chemical CompanyEMN	8,422	1.5x	1.4x
Commercial Metals CompanyCMC	7,869	1.0x	1.0x
B2Gold Corp.BTG	7,119	2.4x	1.8x
NewMarket CorporationNEU	6,300	2.6x	2.9x
Louisiana-Pacific CorporationLPX	5,250	2.0x	1.8x
Industry Median		2.2x	1.8x
(*) Revenue		18,610	18,877
= Enterprise Value		40,814	33,921
(-) Net Debt		8,114	8,114
Equity Value		32,700	25,807
(/) Outstanding shares		492	492
Fair Price		$66	$52

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$59.44

+439.4%

Disclaimer: Sweet Value Lab provides estimated intrinsic values for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. All models rely on assumptions that may not reflect future performance. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.

Model

Range

Fair Value

Upside

▸ Discounted Cash Flow

Revenue DCF 5Y

$2.78 – $124.40

$35.38

+221.1%

Revenue DCF 10Y

$2.58 – $103.56

$28.10

+155.0%

▸ Trading Multiples

EV/Revenue

$39.39 – $163.06

$59.44

+439.4%

DCF Analysis

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) Revenue DCF (5Y)

REVENUE DCF FAIR VALUE

$28.10

Market Price

$11.02

Upside / Downside

+155.0%

Verdict

Undervalued

Key Assumptions

Current Operating Margin

-7.3%

Target Operating Margin

13.1%

WACC

8.4%

Terminal Growth Rate

3.0%

Historical CapEx/Rev

3.4%

Target CapEx/Rev

7.5%

D&A/Revenue

5.0%

Tax Rate

22.9%

Margin Convergence Projection

USD in millions. Mid-year discounting convention.

Year	Revenue	Growth	Op Margin	Op Income	NOPAT	D&A	CapEx	ΔNWC	FCFF	PV(FCFF)
2026	20,535	10.3%	-3.2%	-659	-659	1,024	(787)	350	-771	-740
2027	21,023	2.4%	0.9%	183	141	1,048	(891)	111	188	167
2028	21,200	0.8%	5.0%	1,049	809	1,057	(984)	40	842	689
2029	22,471	6.0%	9.0%	2,029	1,564	1,121	(1,134)	289	1,262	952
2030	21,949	-2.3%	13.1%	2,877	2,218	1,095	(1,197)	-119	2,235	1,557
2031	21,634	-1.4%	13.1%	2,835	2,186	1,079	(1,267)	-72	2,069	1,330
2032	21,515	-0.6%	13.1%	2,820	2,174	1,073	(1,348)	-27	1,927	1,143
2033	21,588	0.3%	13.1%	2,829	2,182	1,077	(1,440)	17	1,802	986
2034	21,853	1.2%	13.1%	2,864	2,208	1,090	(1,546)	60	1,692	855
2035	22,314	2.1%	13.1%	2,924	2,255	1,113	(1,669)	105	1,594	743

Enterprise Value Bridge

Sum of PV(FCFF)7,681

Terminal Value (Gordon Growth at 3.0%)30,594

PV of Terminal Value14,262

Enterprise Value21,943

(–) Net Debt8,114

Equity Value13,829

(÷) Shares Outstanding492

Fair Value per Share$28.10

Sensitivity Analysis — WACC × Target Operating Margin

WACC \ Target Op. Margin	7.1%	10.1%	13.1%	16.1%	19.1%
6.4%	$9	$33	$56	$80	$104
7.4%	$3	$21	$39	$57	$75
8.4%	$-1	$13	$28	$43	$57
9.4%	$-4	$8	$21	$33	$45
10.4%	$-6	$5	$15	$26	$36

Current price: $11.02. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.

Working Capital Assumption

Net Working Capital is modeled at 22.7% of revenue (historical average of receivables + inventory − payables). Changes in NWC (ΔNWC) are computed year-over-year and subtracted from free cash flow.

Trading Multiples

Fair Value

$59.44

Market Price

$11.02

Upside / Downside

+439.4%

Verdict

Undervalued

Using the industry peer median EV/Revenue multiple (trailing + forward), Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) has a fair value of $59.44 based on 8 comparable companies in the Steel industry.

EV/Revenue Valuation — Steel

USD in millions except Fair Price. Subject company highlighted.

	Mkt Cap ($M)	Trailing EV/Revenue	Forward EV/Revenue
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.CLF	5,424	0.7x	0.7x
First Majestic Silver Corp.AG	10,793	8.1x	6.2x
Hudbay Minerals Inc.HBM	9,929	4.7x	3.6x
Ternium S.A.TX	9,073	0.7x	0.6x
Eastman Chemical CompanyEMN	8,422	1.5x	1.4x
Commercial Metals CompanyCMC	7,869	1.0x	1.0x
B2Gold Corp.BTG	7,119	2.4x	1.8x
NewMarket CorporationNEU	6,300	2.6x	2.9x
Louisiana-Pacific CorporationLPX	5,250	2.0x	1.8x
Industry Median		2.2x	1.8x
(*) Revenue		18,610	18,877
= Enterprise Value		40,814	33,921
(-) Net Debt		8,114	8,114
Equity Value		32,700	25,807
(/) Outstanding shares		492	492
Fair Price		$66	$52

Selected Fair Value (avg of trailing + forward)

$59.44

+439.4%