Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 25.0%, Ciena Corporation has a fair value of $153.41 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $6.14. The current PEG ratio is 0.47.
PEG < 1 = bargain, 1–1.5 = fair, > 2 = expensive.
Growth above 25% is capped — hypergrowth may not be sustainable long-term.
| EPS Growth RateForward | 136.5% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 25.0% |
| Fair P/E | 25.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $6.14 |
| Fair Value | $153.41 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $0.85 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $6.14 | +621.9% | 12 |
| FY2027E | $8.26 | +34.5% | 12 |
| FY2028E | $11.25 | +36.3% | 8 |
3Y Forward EPS CAGR: 136.5%
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | $500.2M | $3.19 | — |
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.
| FY2022 | $152.9M | $1.00 | -68.7% |
| FY2023 | $254.8M | $1.71 | +71.0% |
| FY2024 | $84.0M | $0.58 | -66.1% |
| FY2025 | $123.3M | $0.85 | +46.6% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: -28.2%