Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from 2.2% to -35.8% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 56, DPO 28, DIO 60). At a 8.7% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (88% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 15.0x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $36.78 per share, suggesting CHRW is overvalued by 78.2% at the current price of $169.02.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 631 | 672 | 720 | 654 | 420 | 431 |
| (−) Net Interest | 72 | 76 | 82 | 74 | 48 | 49 |
| (+) D&A | 65 | 61 | 47 | 42 | 48 | 49 |
| EBITDA | 768 | 810 | 849 | 770 | 516 | 529 |
| (−) Tax | 121 | 129 | 138 | 125 | 80 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 52 | 55 | 59 | 54 | 34 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 2,618 | 256 | 297 | -406 | -1,446 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | -2,023 | 370 | 355 | 997 | 1,847 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 15.0x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 7,947 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.66% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | -1,941 | 327 | 289 | 746 | 1,270 | 5,245 |
| Enterprise Value | 5,936 | |||||
| Projection Period | 691 | 11.6% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 5,245 | 88.4% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 1,468 | |||||
| Equity Value | 4,468 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 122M | |||||
| Fair Price | $37 | -78.2% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 11.0x | 13.0x | 15.0x | 17.0x | 19.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $30 | $36 | $42 | $49 | $55 |
| 7.7% | $27 | $33 | $39 | $46 | $52 |
| 8.7% | $25 | $31 | $37 | $43 | $48 |
| 9.7% | $23 | $29 | $34 | $40 | $45 |
| 10.7% | $21 | $27 | $32 | $37 | $42 |
Current price: $169.02. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.