Using the PEG framework with analyst consensus forward EPS growth of 8.0% plus 1.6% dividend yield, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. has a fair value of $73.28 based on NTM EPS (FY2026) of $9.16.
| EPS Growth RateForward | -4.1% |
| Dividend Yield | +1.6% |
| Adjusted Growth (clamped 8–25%)Clamped | 8.0% |
| Fair P/E | 8.0x |
| NTM EPS (FY2026) | $9.16 |
| Fair Value | $73.28 |
| Period | EPS Est. | Growth | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (actual) | $8.97 | — | — |
| FY2026E | $9.16 | +2.1% | 13 |
| FY2027E | $7.16 | -21.9% | 14 |
| FY2028E | $7.00 | -2.1% | 9 |
| FY2029E | $5.66 | -19.1% | 4 |
| FY2030E | $7.27 | +28.4% | 4 |
5Y Forward EPS CAGR: -4.1%
The PEG Fair Value uses the Price/Earnings-to-Growth framework. A stock is fairly valued when its P/E ratio equals its earnings growth rate (PEG = 1.0). This model adds dividend yield to the growth rate per the original PEGY formula.
Growth rate priority: analyst consensus forward EPS CAGR (when ≥ 3 analysts cover the stock), falling back to historical EPS CAGR. Using EPS rather than net income avoids distortion from share buybacks. The growth rate is clamped between 8% and 25% — below 8% would undervalue stable earners, while above 25% would overvalue unsustainable spikes.
| Year | Net Income | EPS | YoY |
|---|
| FY2021 | $917.0M | $4.24 | — |
| FY2022 | $3.3B | $16.39 | +286.4% |
| FY2023 | $1.5B | $7.87 | -52.0% |
| FY2024 | $1.2B | $6.74 | -14.4% |
| FY2025 | $1.5B | $8.97 | +33.1% |
4Y Historical EPS CAGR: 20.6%