Using an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model, we project Crown Castle Inc.'s cash flows over 5 years with line-by-line expense modeling. Revenue is projected revenue growing from -4.8% to 2.3% annually, with expenses (COGS, SG&A, R&D) held at historical ratios. Depreciation is computed from a vintage matrix based on a 5-year useful life. Working capital is modeled using historical turnover days (DSO 34, DPO 38, DIO 60). At a 6.6% WACC with mid-year discounting, the terminal value (80% of enterprise value) is derived by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple of 17.6x to Year 6 EBITDA. After subtracting net debt, the equity value implies a fair price of $58.27 per share, suggesting CCI is overvalued by 25.0% at the current price of $77.70.
Adjust parameters to explore scenarios. Changes are for exploration only and do not affect saved valuations.
| 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | Terminal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Before Tax | 1,859 | 1,891 | 1,921 | 2,079 | 2,126 | 2,179 |
| (−) Net Interest | 549 | 558 | 567 | 613 | 627 | 643 |
| (+) D&A | 1,073 | 960 | 832 | 684 | 588 | 602 |
| EBITDA | 3,481 | 3,408 | 3,320 | 3,376 | 3,341 | 3,424 |
| (−) Tax | 27 | 28 | 28 | 30 | 31 | — |
| (−) CapEx | 661 | 672 | 683 | 739 | 756 | — |
| (−) ΔWC | 184 | 8 | 7 | 38 | 12 | — |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) | 2,608 | 2,701 | 2,601 | 2,568 | 2,542 | — |
| Peers' EBITDA Multiple | 17.6x | |||||
| Terminal Value | 60,095 | |||||
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.62% | |||||
| Timing of FCF (mid year) | 0.5 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Present Value of FCF | 2,526 | 2,453 | 2,216 | 2,052 | 1,905 | 43,619 |
| Enterprise Value | 54,772 | |||||
| Projection Period | 11,153 | 20.4% | ||||
| Terminal Value | 43,619 | 79.6% | ||||
| (−) Current Net Debt | 29,297 | |||||
| Equity Value | 25,475 | |||||
| (÷) Outstanding Shares | 437M | |||||
| Fair Price | $58 | -25.0% | ||||
| WACC \ EV/EBITDA Exit Multiple | 13.5x | 15.5x | 17.5x | 19.5x | 21.5x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.6% | $44 | $57 | $69 | $82 | $94 |
| 5.6% | $40 | $52 | $64 | $76 | $88 |
| 6.6% | $36 | $47 | $58 | $70 | $81 |
| 7.6% | $31 | $42 | $53 | $64 | $75 |
| 8.6% | $28 | $38 | $48 | $59 | $69 |
Current price: $77.70. Green = undervalued, Red = overvalued.
Based on default parameters
This is an unlevered Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) model with a 5-year projection period. Revenue, expenses, D&A, and working capital are projected using the same line-by-line approach as the Growth Exit models. The key difference is the terminal value methodology: instead of assuming perpetual cash flow growth, the terminal value is calculated by applying the industry peer median EV/EBITDA multiple to the projected Year 6 EBITDA.
Using a peer exit multiple anchors the terminal value to how the market currently prices comparable companies, rather than relying on a theoretical perpetual growth assumption. This approach captures relative valuation dynamics and is particularly useful when a company is expected to converge toward industry-average profitability over time. The sensitivity matrix shows how fair value changes across different WACC and EV/EBITDA multiple scenarios.